Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:56:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe91c…58e1 other 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,585 (+1%) realized +$1,584 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%7W / 86L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$1,117per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$654now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$7
14 days−$17
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$1,863
politics 39% −$52
sports 5% −$247
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% −$3
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.0% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 32 -0.8% -10.2% 6% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 81 -7.8% -16.6% 9% 6% -7.9%
all 93 -6.8% -15.7% 8% 5% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 5% -8.2%
10% -23.7% 5% -17.0%
15% -31.1% 4% -25.0%
20% -37.9% 4% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,505) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$292 vs −$6 · ×51.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.22 per $1 lost it wins $4.22
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$654
Realized+$1,584
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses7 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)93 / 95
History coverage97d
Avg bet$1,117
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $443 $443 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $211 $211 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 23 $336 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $2,179 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $284 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $352 +$2 +1%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $917 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,088 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,588 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $4,110 −$5 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $369 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $1,368 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,201 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,620 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $622 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $1,267 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,321 −$4 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,850 −$2 -0%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $680 −$1 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $55 +$44 +79%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $1,480 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,016 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $817 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,010 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,020 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $823 −$1 -0%
Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $49 +$28 +57%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $832 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $3,029 −$3 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 22 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $1,091 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? May 19 $1,505 −$4 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $5,066 −$4 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $1,666 −$2 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $1,542 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $1,685 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $1,513 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,701 −$3 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,694 −$2 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,684 −$3 -0%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-04? May 07 $1,248 +$1,952 +156%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $443 1h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $336 5h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $336 7h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $305 25h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $306 28h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $284 3d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $284 4d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $385 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $386 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $418 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $419 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $434 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $435 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $436 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $437 7d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $461 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $462 8d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $368 8d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $369 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $438 9d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $438 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $211 9d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $594 12d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $595 12d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $595 13d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $595 14d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $501 14d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $502 14d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $528 14d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $529 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $654.22 · official $654.22 (match) · 327 history records