Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:33:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe917…9d8e crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized +$20 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate52%13W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day66.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$24
other 4% +$16
world 4% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -8.4% -17.1% 52% 40% -10.5%
≤30d 25 -8.4% -17.1% 52% 40% -10.5%
≤90d 25 -8.4% -17.1% 52% 40% -10.5%
all 25 -8.4% -17.1% 52% 40% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 40% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 28% -19.0%
15% -32.3% 24% -26.9%
20% -38.9% 20% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)25 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day66.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No 54¢ 64¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 63¢ 56¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 42¢ 4¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$15 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $93 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $87 −$7 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$26 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$9 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$2 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $77 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $51 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$13 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$15 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $32 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $31 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $35 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $37 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $31 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $15 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $12 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $16 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $15 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $12 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $15 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $15 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $23 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.88 · official $27.88 (match) · 80 history records