trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 17¢ | $850 | $832 | −$18 (-2%) |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | Yes | 37¢ | 0¢ | $74 | $0 | −$74 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 | Jun 13 | $2,942 | +$55 | +2% |
| Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) | Jun 13 | $50 | +$24 | +48% |
| Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $23 | +$34 | +148% |
| Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) | Jun 12 | $16 | +$9 | +54% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Jun 09 | $1,770 | +$2,210 | +125% |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | Jan 18 | $74 | −$74 | -100% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | Dec 31 | $300 | +$61 | +20% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | Dec 20 | $2,638 | +$316 | +12% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +75.4% | +58.7% | 100% | 80% | +34.4% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +75.4% | +58.7% | 100% | 80% | +34.4% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +75.4% | +58.7% | 100% | 80% | +34.4% |
| all | 8 | +38.6% | +25.4% | 88% | 75% | +21.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +25.4% | 75% | +21.0% |
| 10% | +13.4% | 50% | +9.4% |
| 15% | +2.5% | 50% | -1.2% |
| 20% | -7.6% | 38% | -10.8% |