Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:32:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe913…d360 crypto 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 504d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7,391 (-16%) realized −$6,327 · open −$1,064
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%30W / 34L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$693per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$498
7 days+$498
14 days+$498
30 days+$498
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$3,406
sports 39% −$4,416
other 23% −$858
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +14.4% +3.5% 60% 60% +6.2%
≤30d 10 +14.4% +3.5% 60% 60% +6.2%
≤90d 10 +14.4% +3.5% 60% 60% +6.2%
all 64 -3.3% -12.5% 47% 44% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 44% -25.6%
10% -20.9% 38% -32.7%
15% -28.5% 33% -39.2%
20% -35.5% 25% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$630) neutral
Persistence
early -24% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$269 vs −$461 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

504d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$6,327
Unrealized−$1,064
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses30 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage504d
Avg bet$693
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs KOLESIE 21¢ 0¢ $1,066 $3 −$1,064 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $135 +$38 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $357 +$281 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $279 −$266 -95%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $624 +$420 +67%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $255 +$370 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $312 −$312 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $157 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $159 −$150 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $47 +$91 +194%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $567 +$176 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Feb 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Metizport - Map 2 Winner Feb 19 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Feb 18 $989 −$989 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Feb 18 $499 +$490 +98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Feb 18 $2,390 −$2,390 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Feb 18 $31 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner Feb 18 $585 +$430 +74%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Grou Feb 18 $3,475 +$687 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Feb 18 $204 +$347 +170%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Feb 15 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Feb 14 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Feb 14 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Feb 14 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Feb 14 $19 −$19 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Feb 14 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Feb 14 $89 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Feb 14 $100 +$413 +413%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Feb 14 $100 +$424 +424%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Feb 14 $73 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Feb 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Feb 14 $100 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Feb 14 $21 +$78 +371%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 14 $635 +$70 +11%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Feb 14 $486 +$150 +31%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Feb 14 $290 +$196 +68%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Feb 14 $174 +$116 +66%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 14 $128 +$46 +36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Feb 08 $203 −$203 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 08 $85 +$118 +139%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner Feb 02 $494 −$494 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 02 $502 −$502 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 01 $1,503 −$510 -34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Feb 01 $630 −$630 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 01 $1,882 +$747 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 01 $1,760 +$78 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 01 $238 +$101 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Feb 01 $974 +$701 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Feb 01 $757 −$750 -99%
Over $20M committed to the Space public sale? Jan 16 $65 −$65 -100%
VOOI FDV above $100M one day after launch? Dec 18 $162 −$162 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY KOLESIE 21¢ $729 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY KOLESIE 20¢ $363 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $135 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $638 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $357 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $140 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $139 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,044 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $624 18h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $625 18h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $50 19h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $205 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $156 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $156 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $157 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $159 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $743 40h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $567 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.58 · official $2.58 (match) · 822 history records