Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:42:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe912…a7f8 crypto 645 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$323 (+3%) realized +$324 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate43%275W / 361L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$114
7 days−$114
14 days−$114
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$51
sports 2% −$8
other 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
world 0% −$5
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 -11.4% -19.8% 9% 1% -16.7%
≤30d 128 -11.4% -19.8% 9% 1% -16.7%
≤90d 636 -4.6% -13.7% 43% 30% -10.6%
all 636 -4.6% -13.7% 43% 30% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 30% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 20% -19.1%
15% -29.5% 9% -26.9%
20% -36.4% 5% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized+$324
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses275 / 361
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)636 / 645
History coverage70d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 636 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? No 90¢ 92¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 86¢ 85¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 82¢ 81¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.35B? No 77¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 70¢ 70¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 Under 72¢ 69¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Lotte Giants 50¢ 54¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$2 -19%
Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$3 -21%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) Jun 16 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$9 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $11 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $12 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $12 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $12 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $12 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $11 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $12 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $11 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $12 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $12 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $12 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $12 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $11 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $12 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $12 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $12 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $9 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $12 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $12 1h
Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 89¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.20 · official $77.21 (match) · 2401 history records