Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:20:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe910…57ee sports 198 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,193 (+8%) realized +$1,286 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%76W / 120L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$247est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$387now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$231
7 days−$282
14 days−$713
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$156
world 2% +$148
other 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -15.1% -23.2% 27% 27% -31.5%
≤30d 105 -1.9% -11.2% 37% 37% -10.3%
≤90d 194 -7.4% -16.3% 39% 38% -7.9%
all 196 -5.9% -14.9% 39% 38% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 38% -7.0%
10% -23.0% 38% -15.9%
15% -30.5% 36% -24.0%
20% -37.3% 32% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$45 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$387
Realized+$1,286
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses76 / 120
Est. fees paid−$247
Open positions2
Markets (closed)196 / 198
History coverage112d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 51¢ 57¢ $340 $387 +$47 (+14%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Vitality 55¢ 0¢ $140 $0 −$140 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $82 −$81 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $61 +$72 +118%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $101 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $84 −$83 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $59 +$51 +88%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $97 −$29 -30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 +$85 +549%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $243 +$287 +118%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $290 −$212 -73%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $222 −$218 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $393 −$389 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $223 −$217 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $57 +$41 +73%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $94 +$126 +133%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $58 −$57 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $102 +$117 +115%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $107 −$81 -75%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $99 +$61 +62%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $98 −$96 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $61 +$72 +119%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $51 +$49 +97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $41 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $34 −$33 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $51 +$74 +145%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $23 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $84 +$66 +79%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $45 +$44 +99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $27 +$27 +97%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $68 +$51 +75%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $4 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $21 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $66 −$65 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $117 +$107 +92%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $62 +$58 +93%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $67 −$66 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $171 +$104 +61%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $95 35m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 52¢ $250 51m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 52¢ $28 56m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 62¢ $63 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 50¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 69¢ $391 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $395 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 18¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 36¢ $9 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 52¢ $69 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 26¢ $26 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $133 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 45¢ $61 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 12¢ $10 26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 47¢ $19 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 8¢ $4 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $19 30h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $11 30h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 10¢ $4 30h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 56¢ $80 31h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $11 32h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $14 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $27 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $110 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 52¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 52¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 52¢ $8 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 52¢ $18 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 54¢ $27 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 11¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $387.15 · official $387.15 (match) · 512 history records