Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:06:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe90f…0088 other 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 297d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$292 (+8%) realized +$303 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%28W / 63L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$211
14 days+$281
30 days+$232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$306
sports 11% +$161
crypto 10% −$129
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +27.4% +15.3% 50% 45% +18.2%
≤30d 28 +22.6% +10.9% 54% 46% +11.5%
≤90d 31 +15.2% +4.2% 52% 45% -8.3%
all 91 -11.4% -19.9% 31% 29% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 29% -0.2%
10% -27.5% 26% -9.8%
15% -34.5% 22% -18.5%
20% -40.9% 19% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$24 · ×2.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

297d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized+$303
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses28 / 63
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions7
Markets (closed)91 / 99
History coverage297d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 20¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-34%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $34 −$6 -16%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$79 +388%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$2 -24%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$12 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $91 −$27 -29%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 +$28 +109%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $120 −$2 -1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $62 +$38 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$27 +105%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$25 +99%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$22 +107%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$6 -25%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $104 +$30 +29%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $76 +$5 +7%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -80%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $18 +$42 +233%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $52 +$16 +30%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $56 +$33 +60%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $23 +$8 +33%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $254 −$254 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $109 +$43 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 11? Jan 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $18 −$18 -100%
Over $160M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $21 −$19 -91%
Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $85 −$76 -89%
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $100 −$89 -89%
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $74 −$54 -73%
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $220 +$24 +11%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Chelsea vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Nov 30 $34 +$66 +194%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $72 −$71 -100%
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? Nov 29 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $124 +$73 +59%
Will AS Monaco FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Nov 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30? Nov 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Nov 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-26? Nov 27 $30 +$47 +156%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 59¢ $29 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $6 4h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 70¢ $26 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $34 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 26¢ $8 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $10 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $13 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 40¢ $64 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $25 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $53 29h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $25 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $119 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $120 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 4d
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $40 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.91 · official $196.91 (match) · 240 history records