Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

E9 0xe90e…297c sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 55d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$32 (+31%) realized +$32 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip

Net edge+40%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate62%5W / 3L

Drawdown10%max

Avg bet$12per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days+$14

14 days+$14

30 days+$34

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+39.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+43.6%	+29.9%	100%	100%	+29.9%
≤30d	4	+182.4%	+155.5%	100%	100%	+49.3%
≤90d	8	+54.5%	+39.8%	62%	50%	+38.9%
all	8	+54.5%	+39.8%	62%	50%	+38.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+39.8%	50%	+38.9%
10%	+26.4%	50%	+25.6%
15%	+14.2%	50%	+13.5%
20%	+3.0%	38%	+2.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 81% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +55% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$1 · ×6.87 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×11.45 per $1 lost it wins $11.45

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage

Net worth$46

Realized+$32

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses5 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)8 / 9

History coverage55d

Avg bet$12

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown10%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	77¢	76¢	$46	$46	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$32	+$14	+44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01?	Jun 01	$18	+$14	+76%
Will a team from France be the 2026 Champions League winner?	May 31	$1	+$3	+285%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q	May 21	$1	+$3	+325%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q	May 04	$1	−$1	-98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualif	May 04	$1	−$1	-98%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	Apr 24	$1	−$1	-100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	Apr 24	$3	$0	+7%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$46	1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	69¢	$32	6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01?	BUY Yes	56¢	$18	16d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q	BUY Nongshim Red Force	28¢	$1	44d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualif	BUY Natus Vincere	37¢	$1	44d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q	BUY Weibo Gaming	23¢	$1	44d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas	81¢	$1	55d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas	50¢	$1	55d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	BUY Bilibili Gaming	59¢	$1	55d
Will a team from France be the 2026 Champions League winner?	BUY Yes	26¢	$1	55d
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	BUY No	14¢	$1	55d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.70 · official $45.70 (match) · 17 history records