Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:47:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe905…c26c other 230 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%15W / 214L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$24
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$35
sports 23% −$17
politics 9% −$7
economics 7% −$6
culture 6% −$6
crypto 5% −$4
world 5% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 229 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses15 / 214
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)229 / 230
History coverage126d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $306 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $135 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $382 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $173 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $127 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $499 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 14 $143 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $475 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $263 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $558 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $184 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $147 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $198 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $346 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $94 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $489 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $337 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $464 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $248 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $134 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $200 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $325 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $395 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $228 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $275 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $308 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $201 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $285 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $543 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $128 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $260 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $313 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $54 1h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $54 3h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $54 5h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 5h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 6h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 9h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 10h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 14h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $54 16h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 20h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $54 21h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 24h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 26h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 27h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 28h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 31h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 33h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $10 33h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $10 35h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 42h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 44h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 46h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 47h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.59 · official $53.59 (match) · 1285 history records