Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:07:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E9
0xe904…2d9f
culture · 438 markets active 3h ago
5.5score
+$19,085 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$18,536 · open +$749
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP culture specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11,701
Realized+$18,536
Unrealized+$749
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses242 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions40
Markets (closed)398 / 438
History coverage161d
Avg bet$336
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 40 History 398 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$639
14 days+$2,004
30 days+$3,288
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in the US in June? Yes 94¢ 97¢ $3,258 $3,363 +$105 (+3%)
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? No 43¢ 83¢ $807 $1,545 +$738 (+91%)
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 61¢ 88¢ $942 $1,350 +$408 (+43%)
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Yes 75¢ 78¢ $1,167 $1,211 +$43 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 60¢ 87¢ $500 $724 +$224 (+45%)
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? Yes 79¢ 92¢ $617 $719 +$102 (+17%)
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 87¢ 93¢ $472 $505 +$32 (+7%)
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 52¢ 35¢ $669 $450 −$219 (-33%)
Will "Iceman - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of June 20? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $201 $215 +$14 (+7%)
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Yes 57¢ 98¢ $83 $144 +$61 (+73%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 60¢ 10¢ $767 $125 −$642 (-84%)
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 20? Yes 73¢ 99¢ $64 $86 +$22 (+35%)
Will "Kingdom of Fear - Cameron Whitcomb" be the song of the summer? No 95¢ 96¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ariana Grande feature Nicki Minaj on Petal? No 89¢ 95¢ $74 $80 +$6 (+8%)
Will "Raindance - Dave & Tems" be the song of the summer? No 96¢ 98¢ $75 $76 +$1 (+2%)
Will Ariana Grande feature Kanye West on Petal? No 80¢ 99¢ $61 $75 +$14 (+23%)
Will Bad Bunny have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? No 91¢ 98¢ $64 $69 +$5 (+7%)
Will Ariana Grande feature Billie Eilish on Petal? No 80¢ 74¢ $61 $56 −$4 (-7%)
Will "New Religion - Bebe Rexha & Faithless" be the song of the summer? No 94¢ 96¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+2%)
Will "Talk To You - ANOTR & 54 Ultra" be the song of the summer? No 95¢ 96¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+2%)
Will Ariana Grande feature Taylor Swift on Petal? No 90¢ 58¢ $85 $55 −$30 (-35%)
Will "Bangaranga - DARA" be the song of the summer? No 90¢ 96¢ $52 $55 +$3 (+6%)
Will Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 90¢ 97¢ $44 $48 +$4 (+8%)
Will Ariana Grande feature Troye Sivan on Petal? No 91¢ 58¢ $71 $45 −$25 (-36%)
Will Ariana Grande feature Doja Cat on Petal? No 86¢ 60¢ $62 $44 −$18 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $500 +$41 +8%
Will "Fiona Apple" be featured on Olivia Rodrigo's new album? Jun 12 $114 +$7 +6%
Will "Addison Rae" be featured on Olivia Rodrigo's new album? Jun 12 $210 +$8 +4%
Will "Lorde" be featured on Olivia Rodrigo's new album? Jun 12 $108 +$12 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $500 +$80 +16%
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju Jun 12 $1,133 +$235 +21%
Will "Hayley Williams" be featured on Olivia Rodrigo's new album? Jun 12 $61 +$5 +9%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $281 −$154 -55%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $366 +$447 +122%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $142 −$129 -90%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $13 −$10 -77%
Will "Billie Eilish" be featured on Olivia Rodrigo's new album? Jun 12 $53 +$3 +6%
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June? Jun 11 $299 −$192 -64%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $172 −$172 -100%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on Spotify Jun 10 $166 −$156 -94%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $898 −$745 -83%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 09 $342 −$342 -100%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 50m? Jun 09 $187 +$11 +6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $203 +$222 +109%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song Jun 09 $997 −$215 -22%
Will "Iceman - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of Ju Jun 08 $143 +$9 +6%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 07 $515 +$254 +49%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $205 +$128 +62%
Will Taylor Swift have a #1 hit in the US in June? Jun 07 $75 +$28 +37%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63.5 and 64 million views in wee Jun 06 $434 +$188 +43%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $203 −$203 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 04 $139 −$139 -99%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 58 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $558 +$28 +5%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $31 −$28 -89%
Will Ariana Grande have a #1 hit in June? Jun 04 $289 +$8 +3%
Will Ariana Grande have a #1 hit in the US in June? Jun 04 $330 +$220 +67%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 04 $1,016 +$267 +26%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $172 −$172 -100%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $254 −$254 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3 Jun 02 $1,310 +$60 +5%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m Jun 02 $630 −$630 -100%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $98 −$98 -100%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song Jun 02 $230 +$579 +252%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? Jun 02 $616 +$313 +51%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the we Jun 02 $766 +$524 +68%
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May? Jun 02 $8,739 +$953 +11%
Will "Iceman - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of Ju Jun 01 $279 +$16 +6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 01 $300 +$27 +9%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m Jun 01 $209 −$84 -40%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m? Jun 01 $252 −$247 -98%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Jun 01 $1,805 +$671 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $370 +$120 +32%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 May 31 $104 −$95 -91%
Will "Obsession" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? May 30 $357 +$234 +66%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? May 30 $431 +$247 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
culture 60% +$12,279
other 33% +$7,266
sports 2% −$409
world 2% +$315
politics 2% −$438
crypto 1% +$491
tech 0% −$219
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $364 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $3 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $174 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $15 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $1 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $564 7h
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju SELL No 100¢ $1,219 7h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 9¢ $2 9h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 9¢ $14 9h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 9¢ $6 9h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 9¢ $5 9h
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju SELL No 100¢ $99 9h
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju SELL No 100¢ $50 9h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 8¢ $51 9h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 86¢ $814 9h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 2¢ $6 9h
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 1¢ $3 9h
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June? SELL Yes 24¢ $107 18h
Will "Talk To You - ANOTR & 54 Ultra" be the song of the summer? BUY No 95¢ $55 20h
Will "Raindance - Dave & Tems" be the song of the summer? BUY No 96¢ $75 20h
Will "Kingdom of Fear - Cameron Whitcomb" be the song of the summer? BUY No 95¢ $80 20h
Will "New Religion - Bebe Rexha & Faithless" be the song of the summer BUY No 95¢ $10 20h
Will "New Religion - Bebe Rexha & Faithless" be the song of the summer BUY No 94¢ $10 20h
Will "New Religion - Bebe Rexha & Faithless" be the song of the summer BUY No 94¢ $35 20h
Will "Babydoll - Dominic Fike" be the song of the summer? BUY No 94¢ $37 20h
Will "Freakin' Out - Dexter and The Moonrocks" be the song of the summ BUY No 95¢ $34 20h
Will "CHÉVERE - ARIA VEGA & Ryan Castro" be the song of the summer? BUY No 94¢ $38 20h
Will "Bangaranga - DARA" be the song of the summer? BUY No 90¢ $52 20h
Will "Fiona Apple" be featured on Olivia Rodrigo's new album? BUY No 97¢ $54 24h
Will "Addison Rae" be featured on Olivia Rodrigo's new album? BUY No 98¢ $155 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -10.4% -18.9% 62% 35% -16.5%
≤30d 107 +0.6% -8.9% 63% 47% -3.8%
≤90d 235 +6.8% -3.4% 62% 49% +1.1%
all 398 +8.3% -2.0% 61% 50% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 50% +2.8%
10% -11.4% 40% -7.0%
15% -20.0% 32% -16.0%
20% -27.8% 25% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,701.48 · official $11,701.48 (match) · 2528 history records