Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:09:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe903…6adb sports 361 markets active 2h ago coverage 596d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,115 (+0%) realized +$1,115 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate61%222W / 139L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,186per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1,672est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,078
7 days+$2,836
14 days−$14,231
30 days−$14,231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$7,431
other 23% +$7,743
crypto 5% +$555
politics 1% −$1,250
tech 1% −$120
world 1% +$185
finance 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +5.2% -4.8% 58% 50% +10.6%
≤30d 22 -18.3% -26.1% 50% 45% -37.7%
≤90d 154 -1.0% -10.4% 58% 58% -19.7%
all 361 -4.6% -13.7% 61% 52% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 52% -9.6%
10% -21.9% 40% -18.2%
15% -29.5% 30% -26.1%
20% -36.4% 21% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$1,260) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$483 vs −$780 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses222 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1,672
Open positions0
Markets (closed)361 / 361
History coverage596d
Avg bet$1,186
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 361 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $4,160 +$2,840 +68%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,380 −$872 -63%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $1,800 +$1,200 +67%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,320 +$680 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $570 +$430 +75%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $148 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $115 +$88 +76%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $201 −$92 -46%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $1,175 −$267 -23%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $452 +$248 +55%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 14 $603 −$603 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $2,435 −$2,435 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $3,220 −$3,220 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5,659 −$5,659 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $4,068 −$4,068 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 14 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 10 $551 +$236 +43%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 10 $7,700 +$2,300 +30%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $128 +$32 +25%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $3,650 +$1,350 +37%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 May 18 $849 −$849 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? May 17 $2,058 −$7 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? May 17 $1,507 −$39 -3%
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees May 08 $15 +$10 +67%
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Apr 28 $195 −$195 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 28 $430 −$430 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Apr 28 $768 −$768 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-8.5) Apr 27 $336 +$363 +108%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) Apr 27 $510 +$490 +96%
Spread: Celtics (-6.5) Apr 27 $672 +$528 +79%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+1.5) Apr 26 $1,071 +$959 +90%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 26 $860 −$860 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 26 $550 +$102 +18%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $690 +$310 +45%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) Apr 26 $650 +$476 +73%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 26 $900 +$323 +36%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Apr 26 $729 −$729 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Apr 26 $1,323 −$1,323 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5 Apr 26 $424 +$365 +86%
Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5) Apr 26 $682 +$745 +109%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 25 $609 +$306 +50%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) Apr 25 $1,195 +$910 +76%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 25 $600 +$123 +20%
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Apr 25 $629 +$329 +52%
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $770 +$230 +30%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 25 $809 +$387 +48%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $840 −$406 -48%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 220.5 Apr 25 $636 −$636 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 26¢ $508 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,380 3h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $720 5h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $1,053 5h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $24 5h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $3 5h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $434 7h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $17 7h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $301 7h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 9h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 9h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $347 9h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $514 14h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $55 14h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $66 14h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $2 14h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $2 14h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $6 14h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $556 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,320 18h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $2,996 25h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $570 29h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 75¢ $150 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $37 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $7 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $74 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2234 history records