Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:17:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe901…2b01 other 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$582 (-9%) realized −$582 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate26%36W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$578
economics 16% −$13
tech 7% −$1
culture 1% −$12
world 1% −$3
crypto 0% −$2
politics 0% −$3
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +51.4% +37.0% 83% 83% +18.8%
≤30d 12 -6.2% -15.2% 58% 50% -14.2%
≤90d 97 -22.8% -30.2% 23% 19% -32.6%
all 138 -18.1% -25.9% 26% 15% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 15% -17.3%
10% -33.0% 12% -25.2%
15% -39.5% 10% -32.4%
20% -45.4% 7% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$582
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses36 / 102
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)138 / 142
History coverage181d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+22%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-12%)
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-03 House seat? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? No 9¢ 5¢ $8 $4 −$3 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $397.50 Week of June 15 2 Jun 15 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +250%
Kyrgyz Republic vs. Palestine: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6AM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET May 20 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7AM ET May 20 $5 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $8 −$6 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $7 −$2 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 13 $4 −$1 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $6 −$1 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 10 $12 −$3 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 09 $11 −$5 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $6 +$5 +84%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 07 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 06 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 06 $14 −$4 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $8 −$2 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $11 +$4 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $14 +$11 +76%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $12 −$4 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 02 $29 −$7 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 02 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $18 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $42 −$13 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $19 −$10 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $11 +$23 +216%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $24 +$2 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $43 −$5 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $25 −$11 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 23 $14 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $15 −$9 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $10 +$21 +208%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $6 −$5 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 19 $28 +$6 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $25 −$8 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 18 $8 −$2 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 15 $45 +$25 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 14 $58 −$19 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 14 $38 −$35 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 13 $7 −$2 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 13 $35 −$33 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 7h
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $397.50 Week of June 15 2 BUY Yes 82¢ $4 29h
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-03 House seat? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 5d
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? SELL No 5¢ $4 5d
Kyrgyz Republic vs. Palestine: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $1 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 21d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 21d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 21d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 27d
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? BUY No 9¢ $16 30d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 30d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 30d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 31d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 32d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 32d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $9 32d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 34d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 34d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 34d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 34d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 35d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 35d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.96 · official $42.97 (match) · 620 history records