Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:09:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe901…3139 sports 794 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,492 (-33%) realized −$1,480 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate39%297W / 457L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day58.4pace
Fees−$124est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$20
14 days−$10
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$248
other 9% +$7
world 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -4.2% -13.4% 64% 55% -17.6%
≤30d 203 -8.1% -16.8% 38% 32% -13.4%
≤90d 754 -8.6% -17.3% 39% 31% -14.3%
all 754 -8.6% -17.3% 39% 31% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 31% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 23% -22.5%
15% -32.4% 19% -30.0%
20% -39.1% 14% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$1,480
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses297 / 457
Est. fees paid−$124
Open positions40
Markets (closed)754 / 794
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day58.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 754 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Xinyu Wang 28¢ 28¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $9 −$3 (-29%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $7 +$3 (+75%)
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Martina Trevisan 61¢ 60¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Julia Grabher 71¢ 88¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Fiona Ferro 68¢ 68¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $5 +$1 (+34%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $5 −$2 (-29%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $5 +$2 (+53%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $3 −$1 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $1 −$3 (-65%)
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Poznan: Duje Ajdukovic vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 15 $6 +$1 +8%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Moez Echargui Jun 15 $9 −$1 -8%
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 15 $20 +$5 +24%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $26 −$12 -45%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $4 +$1 +17%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $6 +$1 +14%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $17 +$17 +102%
Kawa vs. Bronzetti: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Kawa vs Bronzetti Jun 14 $4 +$4 +90%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $21 +$3 +16%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Primorac vs Avanesyan Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $15 +$7 +49%
ITF Zagreb: Elina Avanesyan vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 14 $13 +$3 +26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +88%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 +11%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $5 −$3 -60%
ITF Wuning: Kyoka Okamura vs Hiromi Abe Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Krejcikova vs Zarazua Jun 10 $3 +$1 +20%
ITF Wuning: Yidi Yang vs Kira Pavlova Jun 10 $4 +$2 +49%
Lyon: Hugo Grenier vs Luca Van Assche Jun 08 $6 −$5 -82%
Set 1 Winner: Zheng vs Cristian Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $4 −$3 -63%
Set 1 Winner: Kawa vs Pigato Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Guerrieri vs Svrcina Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $1 +$3 +236%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lisa Pigato Jun 08 $5 +$5 +106%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $1 $0 -12%
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Perricard Jun 08 $13 −$2 -12%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 08 $8 +$4 +49%
Set 1 Winner: Alexandrova vs Udvardy Jun 08 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 07 $10 +$5 +56%
ITF Wuning: Xinxin Yao vs Reina Goto Jun 06 $4 +$1 +36%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $3 +$6 +186%
Makarska: Maria Timofeeva vs Yasmine Kabbaj Jun 05 $7 −$5 -68%
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 05 $13 +$15 +122%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Siniakova/Townsend vs Dabrowski/Stefani Jun 05 $4 −$3 -70%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Aoyama/Liang vs Danilina/Krunic Jun 05 $6 −$5 -80%
Prostejov: Completed Match: Sebastian Baez vs Maxim Mrva Jun 05 $1 $0 +2%
Set 1 Winner: Baez vs Mrva Jun 05 $4 +$1 +35%
Set 1 Winner: Palicova vs Avanesyan Jun 05 $7 +$3 +44%
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Mark Lajal Jun 05 $4 +$2 +50%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Carole Monnet Jun 05 $5 −$1 -11%
Makarska: Noma Noha Akugue vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Jun 05 $1 $0 -13%
Set 1 Winner: Akugue vs Tormo Jun 05 $9 −$1 -14%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $11 −$1 -12%
Makarska: Katarzyna Kawa vs Maya Joint Jun 04 $5 −$3 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson BUY Kajsa Rinaldo Persson 33¢ $1 1h
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson BUY Fiona Ferro 68¢ $6 1h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Martina Trevisan 61¢ $7 1h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Julia Grabher 71¢ $5 1h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 28¢ $15 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Poznan: Duje Ajdukovic vs Dalibor Svrcina SELL Dalibor Svrcina 99¢ $7 18h
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Moez Echargui SELL Jaime Faria 84¢ $9 18h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet SELL Kyrian Jacquet 70¢ $25 18h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Kyrian Jacquet 51¢ $20 20h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce SELL Terence Atmane 65¢ $1 20h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce SELL Martin Landaluce 34¢ $14 20h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 62¢ $1 21h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 38¢ $5 21h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 21h
Will Desire Doue be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 21h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 21h
Will Federico Valverde be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes $1 21h
Will Scott McTominay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 21h
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Moez Echargui BUY Jaime Faria 83¢ $9 21h
Poznan: Duje Ajdukovic vs Dalibor Svrcina BUY Dalibor Svrcina 84¢ $6 21h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Nikoloz Basilashvili 27¢ $1 21h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 78¢ $14 21h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari SELL Qinwen Zheng 37¢ $5 21h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 34¢ $2 21h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 64¢ $13 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.56 · official $121.57 (match) · 3500 history records