Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:16:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe8ff…c93b
other · 331 markets active 5d ago
0.0score
−$60,658 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$63,943 · open +$3,275
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$403,178
Realized−$63,943
Unrealized+$3,275
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses196 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Open positions13
Markets (closed)318 / 331
History coverage543d
Avg bet$6,183
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 13 History 318 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $125,871 $130,190 +$4,319 (+3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 89¢ 90¢ $98,515 $100,603 +$2,088 (+2%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 92¢ $93,017 $92,149 −$868 (-1%)
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 90¢ 94¢ $24,605 $25,528 +$923 (+4%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 85¢ 80¢ $23,993 $22,340 −$1,653 (-7%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $10,394 $11,030 +$636 (+6%)
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $9,000 $9,050 +$50 (+1%)
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? No 81¢ 88¢ $6,537 $7,044 +$508 (+8%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 36¢ 18¢ $5,016 $2,575 −$2,441 (-49%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 95¢ 95¢ $1,797 $1,804 +$7 (+0%)
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 78¢ $356 $399 +$43 (+12%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 40¢ 18¢ $603 $264 −$339 (-56%)
Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked before 2027? No 90¢ 92¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+1%)
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? No 79¢ 0¢ $757 $0 −$757 (-100%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Kraken vs. Lightning Lightning 61¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Haiti vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 97¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $757 −$757 -100%
Kings vs. Hawks Apr 09 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Jamaica win on 2026-03-26? Apr 09 $200 +$13 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Apr 09 $339 +$116 +34%
Will Haiti vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Mar 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Kraken vs. Lightning Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Rio Open: Joao Fonseca vs Thiago Monteiro Feb 17 $310 −$8 -3%
Midland: Hanyu Guo vs Louisa Chirico Feb 17 $100 −$21 -21%
Counter-Strike: ex-KRÜ Esports vs RED Canids (BO3) - ESL Challenger Le Feb 17 $100 −$45 -45%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 02 $18,400 +$680 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 02 $39,916 +$2,318 +6%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Jan 02 $54,789 +$7,065 +13%
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 07 $1,000 +$275 +28%
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Nov 19 $13,570 +$874 +6%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 11 $78 +$3 +4%
Broncos vs. Texans Nov 03 $180 +$37 +21%
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-09-16? Nov 01 $62 +$38 +61%
Cubs vs. Brewers Nov 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Brentford win on 2025-10-20? Nov 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? Nov 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Club Bolívar win on 2025-09-17? Nov 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 16 to September 23, Nov 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Tigers vs. Guardians Nov 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Giants vs. Diamondbacks Nov 01 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Benfica win on 2025-09-16? Nov 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Olympiakos Piraeus win on 2025-09-17? Nov 01 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-09-18? Nov 01 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? Nov 01 $500 −$500 -100%
Lions vs. Ravens Nov 01 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Nov 01 $764 −$764 -100%
Will Verona win on 2025-09-20? Nov 01 $300 −$300 -100%
Texans vs. Jaguars Nov 01 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-18? Nov 01 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18? Nov 01 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Nov 01 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Nov 01 $569 −$569 -100%
Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? Nov 01 $3,000 −$2,839 -95%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Nov 01 $5,000 −$4,415 -88%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Nov 01 $10,386 +$1,625 +16%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Oct 16 $10,000 +$349 +4%
US congress stock trading ban in 2025? Oct 14 $2,950 +$97 +3%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 12 $35,461 +$3,609 +10%
Solana all time high before 2026? Oct 11 $2,000 −$859 -43%
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 15? Oct 11 $174 −$29 -16%
Meek Mill gets a16z funding in 2025? Oct 11 $68 −$28 -41%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Oct 11 $80 +$12 +15%
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025? Oct 11 $200 +$189 +95%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 11 $61 +$2 +3%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 11 $20 $0 -2%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 11 $10 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 36% +$28,887
politics 33% −$71,263
world 15% −$33,229
crypto 6% +$11,454
tech 5% −$1,292
culture 2% +$1,237
economics 1% +$2,219
sports 1% +$1,107
finance 0% +$213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $4,496 4d
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $1 5d
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $92 6d
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $2,875 9d
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $2 9d
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $23 10d
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $5 10d
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $115 11d
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $805 11d
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $19 12d
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $5 12d
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $34 12d
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $21 12d
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $68 12d
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $1,396 12d
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $50 12d
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $3,250 19d
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $3 19d
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $57 19d
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $110 19d
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $27 19d
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $38 19d
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $1,890 19d
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $45 19d
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $2,567 19d
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $117 19d
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $270 19d
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $450 19d
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $61 19d
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $30 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 6 -42.4% -47.8% 50% 17% -57.0%
all 318 -7.3% -16.1% 62% 31% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 31% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 22% -21.6%
15% -31.5% 14% -29.2%
20% -38.2% 11% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $403,178.18 · official $403,178.18 (match) · 3458 history records