Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:35:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe8fc…0d3b
other · 586 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,450 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,750 · open −$697
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,917
Realized−$1,750
Unrealized−$697
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses74 / 410
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions102
Markets (closed)484 / 586
History coverage561d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%
Chart Positions 102 History 484 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$118
14 days−$1,120
30 days−$1,651
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? No 90¢ 82¢ $126 $116 −$10 (-8%)
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 89¢ 74¢ $134 $111 −$22 (-17%)
Will Luis Arraez have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season? No 80¢ 70¢ $121 $106 −$15 (-12%)
Will SD Almeria achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026-27 season? Yes 31¢ 58¢ $46 $87 +$40 (+87%)
Will Pervis Estupiñán score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 44¢ $156 $87 −$69 (-44%)
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 75¢ $93 $87 −$6 (-7%)
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 50¢ 38¢ $75 $58 −$17 (-23%)
Will 3jane launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 36¢ $85 $55 −$31 (-36%)
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 67¢ 55¢ $67 $54 −$12 (-19%)
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $8B by December 31? No 28¢ 52¢ $28 $52 +$23 (+84%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 51¢ 46¢ $51 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $15B by December 31? Yes 42¢ 46¢ $42 $46 +$4 (+10%)
Will Surf launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 58¢ 46¢ $56 $45 −$11 (-20%)
Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 40¢ 34¢ $49 $42 −$7 (-14%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? No 84¢ 81¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-3%)
Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OAI? No 55¢ 38¢ $55 $38 −$17 (-31%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by June 30? No 14¢ 52¢ $10 $37 +$27 (+275%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $165B by June 30? No 88¢ 67¢ $46 $35 −$11 (-24%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $33 $31 −$1 (-4%)
Tabi FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 58¢ 42¢ $43 $31 −$12 (-27%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in June? No 75¢ 62¢ $38 $31 −$7 (-18%)
Will Dani Olmo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 30¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Will ZywOo reach 36 HLTV MVP awards by December 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 34¢ $44 $30 −$14 (-32%)
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? No 34¢ 30¢ $34 $30 −$4 (-13%)
Will Symbiotic launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 61¢ 59¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Jun 13 $79 −$3 -4%
Will Kyle Schwarber win the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award? Jun 13 $23 −$2 -8%
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $81 −$1 -2%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Ostium FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 12 $47 −$3 -7%
AI data center in space by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $18 −$3 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in July 2026? Jun 12 $92 $0 -0%
Tread FDV above $80M one day after launch Jun 12 $97 −$9 -9%
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $65 −$2 -3%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by June 30? Jun 12 $23 −$2 -8%
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 AL East title? Jun 12 $18 $0 -2%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 12 $86 +$1 +2%
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $62 +$1 +2%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 12 $7 $0 -2%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Jun 12 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 4% and 6% in May? Jun 12 $91 +$7 +7%
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election Jun 12 $11 +$50 +458%
Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Jun 12 $107 −$3 -3%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $148 in June? Jun 12 $26 −$1 -4%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 12 $744 −$8 -1%
Will Surf launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $260 −$5 -2%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $95B by June 30? Jun 12 $68 −$4 -7%
City Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 12 $3 $0 +9%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Jun 11 $1 $0 -8%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? Jun 11 $176 −$3 -2%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Rafael Leão score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $63 −$3 -4%
Will Apyx launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $28 −$2 -8%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by June 30? Jun 11 $98 −$2 -2%
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Pau Cubarsí score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $158 −$7 -4%
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $205 +$9 +4%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31? Jun 11 $80 −$9 -11%
Will FUT qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 11 $40 +$3 +7%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.6B? Jun 11 $70 −$36 -51%
Will Hurupay launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 11 $80 −$4 -5%
Will Ethereal launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 11 $45 +$7 +15%
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 11 $123 −$4 -3%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $76 −$9 -12%
Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day? Jun 11 $132 −$10 -8%
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 11 $23 $0 -2%
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by June 30? Jun 10 $13 $0 -2%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 10 $45 $0 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $36 $0 -1%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $120 in June? Jun 10 $12 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 61% −$1,885
tech 11% −$281
world 9% −$140
sports 9% +$159
politics 5% −$86
finance 5% −$210
culture 1% −$10
crypto 0% +$6
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Darius Acuff Jr. be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 72¢ $24 1h
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 1h
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 1h
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 67¢ $67 1h
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? SELL No 47¢ $29 2h
Will Kyle Schwarber win the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award? SELL Yes 22¢ $21 2h
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 80¢ $80 2h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026? SELL No 4¢ $4 4h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $5 4h
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 63¢ $31 4h
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $81 4h
Will Wilson Isidor score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $30 6h
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 6h
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 6h
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $46 7h
Ostium FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 30¢ $29 7h
Ostium FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 7h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 8h
Will Ismaïla Sarr score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 46¢ $7 8h
AI data center in space by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 9h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $33 9h
Will Pervis Estupiñán score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $78 10h
Will Pervis Estupiñán score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $78 10h
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in July 2026? SELL No 92¢ $37 11h
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in July 2026? SELL No 92¢ $55 11h
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in July 2026? BUY No 92¢ $92 11h
AI data center in space by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 11h
Will Breel Embolo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 17¢ $3 11h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $42 11h
Tread FDV above $80M one day after launch SELL No 64¢ $39 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 +2.2% -7.5% 28% 7% -11.1%
≤30d 450 -10.7% -19.2% 15% 6% -16.9%
≤90d 482 -10.8% -19.3% 15% 6% -16.9%
all 484 -10.8% -19.3% 15% 6% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 6% -16.9%
10% -27.0% 4% -24.9%
15% -34.1% 2% -32.1%
20% -40.5% 2% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,917.07 · official $1,917.00 (match) · 1828 history records