Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:50:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E8 0xe8fb…b650 sports 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$149 (+16%) realized +$199 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%22W / 21L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day35.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$95
politics 23% −$47
other 19% −$3
world 5% −$8
tech 1% +$27
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +6.6% -3.6% 51% 49% +7.2%
≤30d 43 +6.6% -3.6% 51% 49% +7.2%
≤90d 43 +6.6% -3.6% 51% 49% +7.2%
all 43 +6.6% -3.6% 51% 49% +7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.6% 49% +7.2%
10% ← realistic here -12.8% 42% -3.0%
15% -21.2% 30% -12.4%
20% -28.9% 26% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$11 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$224
Realized+$199
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses22 / 21
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions14
Markets (closed)43 / 58
History coverage5d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day35.8
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Starmer say "Waiting List" during resignation? Yes 86¢ 42¢ $80 $39 −$41 (-51%)
Will Starmer say "Poverty" during resignation? Yes 72¢ 54¢ $49 $37 −$13 (-26%)
Will Starmer say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during resignation? Yes 65¢ 54¢ $44 $36 −$8 (-18%)
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? No 21¢ 21¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will Starmer say "Social Media" during resignation? Yes 68¢ 34¢ $41 $20 −$21 (-51%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 33¢ 52¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+57%)
Will Starmer say "Thank" 5+ times during resignation? Yes 30¢ 45¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+50%)
Will Starmer say "Social Media" during resignation? No 50¢ 66¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+33%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 72¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+64%)
Will Starmer say "Thank" 5+ times during resignation? No 40¢ 55¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+38%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 50¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 40¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Starmer say "Defense" during resignation? No 30¢ 31¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 74¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+62%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 22 $6 +$27 +448%
Will Starmer say "Deep" or "Deeply" during resignation? Jun 22 $6 −$4 -75%
Mamdani team sweeps primaries? Jun 22 $26 +$8 +30%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? Jun 22 $18 +$3 +17%
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Jun 22 $35 +$7 +19%
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia Jun 22 $13 $0 -4%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FI Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Spain vs Saudi A Jun 21 $2 +$1 +33%
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabi Jun 21 $44 +$32 +72%
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the Spain vs Sau Jun 21 $43 +$27 +63%
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FI Jun 21 $18 −$18 -98%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA Jun 21 $13 −$13 -97%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA Jun 21 $17 −$16 -98%
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Germany vs Ivory Jun 21 $8 +$2 +27%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Netherlands vs Sweden Jun 20 $25 +$97 +391%
Will the announcers say "History" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FI Jun 20 $35 +$15 +43%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIF Jun 20 $12 −$3 -25%
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Germany vs I Jun 20 $8 +$2 +29%
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the Germany vs I Jun 20 $7 +$6 +77%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 +$3 +48%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FI Jun 20 $10 +$5 +54%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA Jun 20 $9 +$1 +17%
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the Netherlands Jun 20 $16 +$14 +92%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Germany vs Ivory Coas Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA Jun 20 $35 −$29 -83%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA Jun 20 $22 −$21 -97%
Will the announcers say "Hydration Break" 5+ times during the USA vs A Jun 20 $21 +$19 +89%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl Jun 20 $13 −$7 -54%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $5 +$5 +97%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Jun 20 $13 +$52 +386%
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the Brazil vs Ha Jun 20 $17 +$13 +79%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the USA vs Australia FIFA Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the USA vs Australia FIFA Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the USA vs Australia FIFA Worl Jun 19 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIF Jun 19 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Wor Jun 19 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 19 $6 +$1 +24%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 $0 +6%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Starmer say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during resignation? BUY Yes 61¢ $13 15m
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $20 15m
Will Starmer say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during resignation? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 17m
Will Starmer say "Deep" or "Deeply" during resignation? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 23m
Will Starmer say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during resignation? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 24m
Mamdani team sweeps primaries? SELL No 69¢ $14 26m
Will Starmer say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during resignation? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 30m
Will Starmer say "Poverty" during resignation? BUY Yes 72¢ $14 31m
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? SELL No 75¢ $21 32m
Will Starmer say "Poverty" during resignation? BUY Yes 72¢ $22 32m
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? SELL No 70¢ $27 33m
Will Starmer say "Poverty" during resignation? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 40m
Will Starmer say "Poverty" during resignation? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 40m
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $13 1h
Will Starmer say "Waiting List" during resignation? BUY Yes 87¢ $7 1h
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $1 1h
Will Starmer say "Waiting List" during resignation? BUY Yes 86¢ $70 1h
Will Starmer say "Waiting List" during resignation? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 1h
Will Starmer say "Social Media" during resignation? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 1h
Will Starmer say "Social Media" during resignation? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will Starmer say "Social Media" during resignation? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 1h
Mamdani team sweeps primaries? SELL No 70¢ $7 2h
Mamdani team sweeps primaries? SELL No 68¢ $2 2h
Will Starmer say "Social Media" during resignation? BUY No 50¢ $5 2h
Will Starmer say "Thank" 5+ times during resignation? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2h
Mamdani team sweeps primaries? SELL No 68¢ $5 2h
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $9 2h
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $11 3h
Will Starmer say "Deep" or "Deeply" during resignation? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 3h
Will Starmer say "Thank" 5+ times during resignation? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.06 · official $224.06 (match) · 211 history records