Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:14:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe8fb…7ece
sports · 93 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$115 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$105 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$175
Realized+$105
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses32 / 42
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions19
Markets (closed)74 / 93
History coverage32d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 19 History 74 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$8
14 days+$18
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 83¢ 86¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 62¢ 82¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+32%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 38¢ 61¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+58%)
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Team Falcons 69¢ 69¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 51¢ 50¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+15%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) TheMongolz 40¢ 38¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will jL appear as an analyst at an S-Tier CS tournament in 2026? Yes 91¢ 16¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-82%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 37¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $13 +$7 +57%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$6 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $12 +$8 +69%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $13 +$29 +216%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $8 +$7 +83%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $9 −$6 -63%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +65%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$15 +152%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $6 −$4 -68%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $15 +$6 +40%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 +$8 +76%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $3 +$5 +152%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 11 $7 +$11 +156%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $20 +$5 +24%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$4 +58%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $4 +$6 +152%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$24 +119%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 +$3 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 63% +$118
other 18% −$24
crypto 7% +$6
politics 6% −$3
world 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 40¢ $4 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 3h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $15 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 51¢ $14 3h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $8 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 30¢ $5 11h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 28¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 63¢ $13 13h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 14h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 14h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 28¢ $2 17h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 61¢ $10 17h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 27h
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $10 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 35h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 57¢ $10 36h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 43¢ $3 36h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $8 37h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 37h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 28¢ $2 37h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 23¢ $5 38h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $5 39h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $3 39h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 55¢ $4 39h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Legacy 33¢ $5 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 25¢ $2 40h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -20.5% -28.0% 39% 39% -11.2%
≤30d 65 -3.4% -12.6% 40% 40% -2.6%
≤90d 74 +6.3% -3.8% 43% 43% +7.1%
all 74 +6.3% -3.8% 43% 43% +7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 43% +7.1%
10% -13.0% 43% -3.1%
15% -21.4% 42% -12.5%
20% -29.1% 36% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.77 · official $174.78 (match) · 215 history records