Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:20:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E8 0xe8f8…54bd sports 374 markets active 0h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,784 (-4%) realized −$2,150 · open +$366
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%170W / 197L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$913now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,835
7 days−$1,381
14 days−$1,304
30 days−$2,385
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$2,430
other 10% −$654
crypto 1% +$69
world 0% −$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +2.3% -7.5% 40% 40% -23.1%
≤30d 82 -3.5% -12.7% 41% 41% -29.1%
≤90d 121 -2.6% -11.9% 46% 46% -20.3%
all 367 -1.8% -11.2% 46% 46% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 46% -16.9%
10% -19.7% 44% -24.9%
15% -27.4% 38% -32.1%
20% -34.6% 31% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -17% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$94 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$913
Realized−$2,150
Unrealized+$366
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses170 / 197
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions6
Markets (closed)367 / 374
History coverage246d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 367 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 100¢ $372 $641 +$269 (+72%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 34¢ 99¢ $40 $117 +$77 (+193%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 43¢ 62¢ $50 $72 +$22 (+43%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Netherlands 44¢ 96¢ $25 $54 +$29 (+117%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Under 41¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 181 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $169 −$167 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $473 −$465 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $59 +$51 +86%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $202 +$101 +50%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $403 +$293 +73%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $193 −$157 -81%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $405 +$284 +70%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $238 −$235 -99%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$99 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $306 −$300 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $510 −$500 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $101 +$84 +82%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $609 −$600 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $51 +$14 +27%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $61 −$10 -16%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $24 −$23 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $234 −$68 -29%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $358 +$164 +46%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $141 −$138 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $195 +$352 +180%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $18 +$132 +712%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $461 +$341 +74%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $129 +$255 +198%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $29 −$28 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $249 +$251 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $99 +$112 +114%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $57 −$56 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $223 −$220 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $208 +$51 +24%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $338 +$188 +56%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $11 +$111 +982%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 +$40 +79%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $204 +$245 +120%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $23 +$29 +124%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $162 −$160 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $409 −$405 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 3m
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 44¢ $25 14m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $31 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 34¢ $41 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $377 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 12¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $51 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $51 5h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $68 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $169 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 15h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 15h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 93¢ $695 15h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 12¢ $36 16h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 16h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 16h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 67¢ $122 16h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 66¢ $202 17h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $59 17h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $403 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $689 18h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 18h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $102 18h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $137 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 49¢ $51 19h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 51¢ $101 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $405 20h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $204 20h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $912.95 · official $962.95 · 911 history records