Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:49:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E8 0xe8f5…1a48 sports 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$710 (+8%) realized +$710 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%64W / 73L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$961
7 days+$912
14 days+$738
30 days+$392
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$646
crypto 14% +$266
other 13% +$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +86.0% +68.2% 73% 73% +79.2%
≤30d 25 +42.3% +28.7% 60% 60% +7.7%
≤90d 137 +14.6% +3.6% 47% 47% +2.4%
all 137 +14.6% +3.6% 47% 47% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 47% +2.4%
10% -6.3% 46% -7.4%
15% -15.3% 44% -16.4%
20% -23.6% 43% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$51 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$710
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses64 / 73
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions0
Markets (closed)137 / 137
History coverage89d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 137 Trades
no open positions (66 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 +$268 +262%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$187 +365%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $114 +$117 +103%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $112 +$111 +99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $56 +$97 +172%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $41 +$87 +213%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $49 +$37 +74%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$59 +116%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $84 −$82 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $71 +$64 +89%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $36 +$35 +99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $66 −$65 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $137 −$137 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $89 −$87 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $156 +$72 +46%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $92 −$92 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $58 −$57 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $109 +$67 +62%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $71 +$59 +82%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $172 −$171 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $26 +$46 +178%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $225 −$221 -98%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) May 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $57 −$56 -99%
Viktor Gyokeres: Anytime Goalscorer May 05 $62 −$62 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Joao Pedro: Anytime Goalscorer May 04 $102 +$105 +103%
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5 May 04 $102 +$173 +170%
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score May 04 $101 +$83 +82%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $55 −$54 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) May 03 $159 +$90 +57%
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 May 03 $92 +$66 +71%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $144 −$142 -98%
Ollie Watkins: Anytime Goalscorer May 03 $87 −$85 -98%
Morgan Rogers: Anytime Goalscorer May 03 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $112 +$94 +84%
Benjamin Sesko: Anytime Goalscorer May 03 $50 +$78 +156%
Eli Junior Kroupi: Anytime Goalscorer May 03 $45 +$55 +123%
Jean-Philippe Mateta: Anytime Goalscorer May 03 $26 −$26 -98%
Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Will CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) May 02 $45 +$48 +104%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 02 $25 +$35 +139%
Viktor Gyokeres: Anytime Goalscorer May 02 $25 +$32 +124%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 01 $79 +$65 +83%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) May 01 $56 +$44 +79%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 30 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $370 44m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $238 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $230 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $223 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $114 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $102 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $41 2h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $51 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $71 6h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $153 21h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $128 23h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $56 24h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $41 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $86 24h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 86¢ $110 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $49 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $51 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $36 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes $15 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $84 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $135 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $71 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $71 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $36 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $66 3d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 48¢ $55 11d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 48¢ $47 11d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 48¢ $34 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 440 history records