Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:14:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8f4…c848 crypto 636 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,110 (+5%) realized +$1,110 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate73%465W / 171L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day27.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$227
14 days+$437
30 days+$578
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$846
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +13.0% +2.2% 89% 43% +2.6%
≤30d 175 +18.6% +7.3% 90% 51% -2.5%
≤90d 636 +0.4% -9.2% 73% 42% -7.1%
all 636 +0.4% -9.2% 73% 42% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 42% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 21% -16.0%
15% -25.8% 12% -24.1%
20% -33.1% 8% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$25 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1,110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses465 / 171
Open positions0
Markets (closed)636 / 636
History coverage74d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day27.2
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 636 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$3 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $60 +$8 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $59 +$6 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $22 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$3 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $59 +$8 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $44 +$5 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$4 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $47 +$61 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $29 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $59 +$21 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $57 +$48 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $57 +$21 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$3 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$9 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$3 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$14 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $56 +$5 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$7 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $44 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$9 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$4 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $57 +$29 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$2 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$3 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $29 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $49 +$172 +352%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $59 +$5 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $59 +$13 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $29 +$3 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $59 +$8 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $29 +$3 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$3 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $59 +$4 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $15 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $30 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $15 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $15 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $7 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $8 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $29 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $7 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $11 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $29 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $12 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $6 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $29 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $15 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $4 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $30 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.15 · official $0.00 · 2640 history records