Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:39:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8f3…008f other 167 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$52 (-0%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%27W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$10
14 days−$20
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$37
politics 26% −$20
sports 16% −$6
crypto 9% −$10
economics 7% −$2
culture 4% −$4
world 3% −$2
finance 3% +$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.5% -10.0% 15% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 67 -0.7% -10.2% 10% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 146 -0.6% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.9%
all 166 -0.5% -10.0% 16% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses27 / 139
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)166 / 167
History coverage105d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $188 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 22 $123 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 22 $65 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 20 $82 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $119 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $143 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $148 −$1 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $86 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $55 $0 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $234 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $82 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 18 $63 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $108 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $175 −$1 -1%
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $60 $0 -1%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $56 −$1 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $73 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $152 −$3 -2%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $372 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $45 +$1 +3%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $50 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $120 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $112 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $57 −$2 -3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $44 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $41 −$1 -2%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $154 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $78 $0 -0%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $42 −$2 -5%
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 06 $44 −$3 -7%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 05 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $128 −$1 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $220 −$1 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $389 −$3 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $226 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $221 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $45 1h
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 91¢ $13 2h
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 90¢ $13 8h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $59 8h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $59 13h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $65 13h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $65 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 27h
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 98¢ $48 28h
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 98¢ $48 36h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $56 36h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $56 44h
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $32 45h
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $4 2d
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $29 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $59 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $60 2d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $42 2d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $42 2d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $43 2d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $44 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $16 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $16 3d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $55 3d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $55 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $47 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $47 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.56 · official $44.56 (match) · 744 history records