Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:20:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E8 0xe8f3…a1e2 sports 48 markets active 2d ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,291 (+1%) realized +$1,291 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate71%34W / 14L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$2,123per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$113est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$111
30 days+$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 71% +$169
other 11% +$34
sports 10% +$305
crypto 4% +$724
world 3% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.0% -9.5% 60% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 +0.0% -9.5% 73% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 +9.8% -0.7% 75% 8% -9.3%
all 48 +10.1% -0.4% 71% 50% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.4% 50% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -9.9% 44% -17.2%
15% -18.6% 31% -25.2%
20% -26.6% 19% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$645) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
14.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$99 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,291
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses34 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage211d
Avg bet$2,123
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2,798 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,679 +$1 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,914 +$1 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,092 −$3 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $947 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $3,191 +$20 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $70,833 +$163 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $7,860 −$81 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $1,994 +$6 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 08 $138 +$162 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Mar 18 $226 +$72 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 18 $186 −$178 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Mar 18 $236 −$232 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Mar 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Mar 18 $341 +$233 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Mar 18 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 18 $41 +$58 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Mar 18 $536 +$63 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Mar 18 $234 +$160 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Mar 12 $262 −$261 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Mar 12 $174 +$54 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Mar 12 $645 +$295 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Mar 12 $269 +$330 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Mar 12 $540 +$60 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 11 $119 +$40 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Mar 11 $294 +$105 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 11 $64 +$12 +18%
Mavericks vs. Magic Mar 11 $228 +$72 +32%
Heat vs. Celtics Mar 05 $560 +$240 +43%
Nuggets vs. Pistons Feb 03 $166 −$166 -100%
Bulls vs. Pacers Jan 29 $70 −$70 -100%
Magic vs. Grizzlies Jan 18 $124 −$124 -100%
Bucks vs. Kings Jan 18 $10 $0 +5%
Knicks vs. Pistons Jan 18 $43 +$57 +133%
Nets vs. Wizards Jan 05 $86 +$94 +108%
76ers vs. Mavericks Jan 05 $130 +$120 +92%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 02 $70 +$30 +43%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 02 $1 $0 +44%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Jan 01 $1 $0 +37%
Suns vs. Wizards Jan 01 $160 +$40 +25%
Warriors vs. Trail Blazers Jan 01 $72 +$128 +178%
Clippers vs. Rockets Dec 11 $44 −$44 -100%
Kings vs. Pacers Dec 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Hawks vs. Wizards Dec 08 $51 +$17 +33%
Trail Blazers vs. Raptors Dec 02 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 26 $206 −$64 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $1,798 41h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $993 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $687 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $915 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $89 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $948 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $51 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 39¢ $139 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $619 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,369 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $62 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $435 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $59 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $60 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $6 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $9 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $5 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $3 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $19 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $25 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $28 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $0 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $0 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $0 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $0 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $0 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $30 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 772 history records