Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8f0…0ca5 other 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$195 (-1%) realized −$196 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate76%13W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,676per market
Trades / day38.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$464now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$500
world 15% +$122
sports 8% +$210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +11.0% +0.4% 76% 18% -10.0%
≤30d 17 +11.0% +0.4% 76% 18% -10.0%
≤90d 17 +11.0% +0.4% 76% 18% -10.0%
all 17 +11.0% +0.4% 76% 18% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.4% 18% -10.0%
10% -9.2% 6% -18.6%
15% ← realistic here -18.0% 6% -26.5%
20% -26.0% 6% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,481) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$231 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$464
Realized−$196
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses13 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1,676
Trades / day38.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Portugal 98¢ 98¢ $315 $315 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) Portugal 99¢ 99¢ $148 $149 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,678 +$22 +1%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,185 +$15 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,005 +$4 +0%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $88 +$16 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $33 −$16 -50%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 +$77 +344%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $173 −$32 -18%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4,400 +$95 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $492 +$61 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$13 -92%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2,104 +$132 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,761 −$862 -49%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6,979 +$85 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $992 +$29 +3%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,481 +$62 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $4,567 +$154 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $398 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) BUY Portugal 99¢ $148 17m
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Portugal 98¢ $98 26m
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Portugal 98¢ $147 26m
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Portugal 98¢ $70 26m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $398 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $424 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $134 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $42 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $110 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $85 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $195 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 100¢ $995 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 100¢ $997 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $194 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 96¢ $96 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 96¢ $114 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 96¢ $20 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 96¢ $29 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 96¢ $29 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,245 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $259 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $183 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $180 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $993 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 10¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $463.55 · official $463.55 (match) · 182 history records