Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:52:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8ef…1eb6 politics 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%2W / 22L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$459per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$6
other 36% −$5
crypto 12% $0
world 12% −$2
sports 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 24 -1.1% -10.5% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 24 -1.1% -10.5% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,373) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses2 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage90d
Avg bet$459
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $1,408 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 24 $1,374 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? Jun 23 $1,398 −$2 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $1,372 −$2 -0%
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $1,365 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,431 −$2 -0%
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 22 $60 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 22 $1,440 $0 -0%
Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1,373 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 21 $9 $0 +3%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $7 −$1 -10%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $176 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $15 $0 -3%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $6 $0 -2%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $2 $0 -6%
Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30? Apr 16 $15 $0 -2%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $3 $0 -9%
Will there be between 18 and 21 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? Mar 30 $159 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Mar 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in March? Mar 30 $22 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $35 +$2 +5%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Mar 26 $144 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Mar 26 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of th BUY No 100¢ $16 0m
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,406 7m
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of th BUY No 100¢ $11 19m
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,396 27m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 35m
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,031 43m
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 53m
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $341 1h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,374 1h
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? SELL No 100¢ $1,397 18h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $40 19h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $18 19h
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,383 19h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $12 19h
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 100¢ $1,371 19h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $10 19h
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 100¢ $1,338 19h
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $15 20h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,364 20h
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 100¢ $34 20h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,365 20h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,428 34h
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 34h
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 34h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,399 34h
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 34h
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes $0 35h
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $210 35h
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 35h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.40 · official $54.40 (match) · 72 history records