Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:13:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E8 0xe8eb…b9a1 politics 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$928per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$6
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$35
other 3% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 28 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 28 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$917) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage70d
Avg bet$928
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $881 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $882 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $884 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $885 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $885 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $885 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $1,809 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,799 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $890 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $895 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $895 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $897 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $899 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $898 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 12 $899 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $903 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $902 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $779 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $916 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $917 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $918 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $919 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $919 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $920 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 1h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $880 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $881 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $881 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $882 9d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $882 10d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $883 11d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $883 12d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $884 14d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $884 15d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $885 16d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $883 20d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $885 21d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $883 22d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $885 23d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $891 24d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $892 25d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $887 27d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $889 27d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $889 29d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $890 30d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $893 31d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $895 32d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $894 33d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $895 34d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $895 35d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $897 35d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $897 37d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $899 38d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $897 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.55 · official $27.55 (match) · 100 history records