Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:36:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E8 0xe8e8…5cd6 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+4%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$19
other 30% +$50
crypto 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 50% -0.2%
≤30d 8 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 50% -0.2%
≤90d 8 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 50% -0.2%
all 8 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 50% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 50% -0.2%
10% -21.8% 38% -9.7%
15% -29.4% 38% -18.5%
20% -36.3% 38% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$35 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $38 +$26 +67%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 23 $50 +$48 +97%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$5 +20%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $40 −$40 -99%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $50 +$90 +180%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 22 $45 −$44 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $38 1h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 17h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $50 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $31 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 17h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $40 22h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $50 32h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $45 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records