Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:16:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8e2…da20 crypto 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,120 (-54%) realized −$1,106 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate53%26W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day41.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$1,095
crypto 17% −$22
sports 8% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +1.1% -8.6% 53% 43% -62.6%
≤30d 49 +1.1% -8.6% 53% 43% -62.6%
≤90d 49 +1.1% -8.6% 53% 43% -62.6%
all 49 +1.1% -8.6% 53% 43% -62.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 43% -62.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 33% -66.2%
15% -25.3% 24% -69.4%
20% -32.6% 22% -72.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$57 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$1,106
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses26 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)49 / 55
History coverage4d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day41.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $28 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 83¢ 52¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Down 60¢ 12¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-81%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Paper Rex 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $19 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$4 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$5 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $23 +$10 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$11 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $24 −$12 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $32 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$6 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $13 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$19 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $17 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$6 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $28 +$40 +141%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -64%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 +$17 +78%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$5 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$8 -84%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $60 +$3 +6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $20 +$1 +4%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,072 −$1,069 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 35¢ $1 18m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 35¢ $1 18m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 83¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $0 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $7 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $11 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.39 · official $110.62 (match) · 188 history records