Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:47:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8df…da94 other 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 451d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate51%26W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$5
other 19% +$2
crypto 9% $0
politics 8% $0
weather 3% $0
sports 2% +$2
tech 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.2% -10.6% 56% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 14 -1.5% -10.8% 36% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 14 -1.5% -10.8% 36% 0% -10.5%
all 51 +1.3% -8.3% 51% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 4% -9.6%
10% -17.1% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.1% 2% -26.1%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

451d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses26 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage451d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 48¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $16 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $86 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $75 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $44 −$7 -15%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $45 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $39 +$2 +6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $8 $0 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $4 $0 -5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $40 −$1 -4%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $1 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 28 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? May 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? May 22 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? May 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 13 $13 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? May 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% or more in April? May 11 $3 +$2 +44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 09 $13 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Malcolm Ranjith be the next pope? May 09 $14 $0 +1%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Virgil van Dijk win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? May 07 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Apr 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Apr 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or below on March 27? Mar 27 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $8 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $28 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $39 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $39 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $25 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $35 23h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $22 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $13 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $35 37h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $25 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $34 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $37 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $37 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $30 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $13 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $18 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $37 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 88¢ $44 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $44 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $45 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $32 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $13 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.33 · official $0.00 (match) · 180 history records