Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:27:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E8 0xe8db…cdc3 crypto 431 markets active 7h ago coverage 18d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$71 (+2%) realized +$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate97%416W / 14L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day51.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$43
14 days+$58
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$64
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 188 +2.6% -7.2% 97% 2% -7.2%
≤30d 430 +1.3% -8.3% 97% 3% -8.0%
≤90d 430 +1.3% -8.3% 97% 3% -8.0%
all 430 +1.3% -8.3% 97% 3% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 3% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 1% -16.8%
15% -25.1% 0% -24.8%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.22 per $1 lost it wins $3.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses416 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)430 / 431
History coverage18d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day51.4
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 430 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 69¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.96 · official $1.96 (match) · 1351 history records