Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:36:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E8 0xe8d5…1995 sports 273 markets active 8h ago coverage 1189d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,097 (-34%) realized −$2,077 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate53%134W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$40
14 days+$33
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$1,963
sports 29% +$53
finance 6% +$9
crypto 4% −$53
politics 3% −$9
economics 3% −$162
world 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +21.5% +9.9% 58% 54% +7.0%
≤30d 89 -0.3% -9.8% 52% 48% -5.2%
≤90d 170 -6.0% -14.9% 50% 43% -7.6%
all 251 -1.7% -11.1% 53% 40% -41.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 40% -41.0%
10% -19.6% 36% -46.6%
15% -27.4% 31% -51.8%
20% -34.5% 29% -56.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$28 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1189d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$2,077
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses134 / 117
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions22
Markets (closed)251 / 273
History coverage1189d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 52¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 86¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+74%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 53¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 62¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+62%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+58%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 41¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 30¢ 30¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 24¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 36¢ 6¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-85%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 8¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-79%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 25¢ 2¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-91%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 82¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+63%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 15¢ 2¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-89%)
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$5 +52%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 +$9 +170%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$10 +101%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$10 +101%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Mikal Bridges win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$20 +383%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$18 +172%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $10 +$8 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Virtanen vs. Majchrzak: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 10 $5 +$5 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 09 $10 +$7 +70%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 09 $10 +$7 +70%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $5 +$2 +48%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $84 +$28 +33%
Will Red Bull have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Monaco Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 07 $5 +$4 +74%
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Monaco Jun 07 $10 +$5 +46%
O/U 3.5 Rounds Jun 07 $10 +$7 +65%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $10 +$6 +60%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Jun 06 $3 +$4 +139%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $3 +$6 +197%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $10 +$6 +58%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $23 −$23 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Siegemund (+1.5) Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 01 $89 −$89 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 01 $45 −$45 -100%
Dalma Galfi vs. Mayar Sherif: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $5 8h
Canada vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 8h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $10 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 45¢ $3 10h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 88¢ $14 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 45¢ $5 10h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 29h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 30¢ $5 29h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 29h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 30h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 48¢ $10 30h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 30h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $5 30h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 61¢ $10 30h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $10 30h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $10 30h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 30h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 30h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 67¢ $9 2d
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL Yes 86¢ $9 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 100¢ $39 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $25 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $10 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $5 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 27¢ $5 3d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 BUY Yes 56¢ $10 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $10 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 79¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.57 · official $128.57 (match) · 711 history records