Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:43:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E8 0xe8d2…ea45 sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$149 (+25%) realized +$152 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%12W / 9L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$42
other 23% +$197
crypto 2% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +36.5% +23.5% 57% 57% +17.1%
≤30d 21 +36.5% +23.5% 57% 57% +17.1%
≤90d 21 +36.5% +23.5% 57% 57% +17.1%
all 21 +36.5% +23.5% 57% 57% +17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.5% 57% +17.1%
10% +11.6% 57% +5.9%
15% +0.9% 57% -4.4%
20% -9.0% 52% -13.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +80% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$21 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$152
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses12 / 9
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 25
History coverage5d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Morocco leading at halftime? No 40¢ 100¢ $20 $49 +$29 (+150%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Scotland 52¢ $34 $2 −$32 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $16 +$25 +158%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $36 +$19 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$11 +44%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $19 −$19 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $41 −$41 -99%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 +$13 +67%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $30 −$29 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $23 −$23 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $74 +$54 +73%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $9 +$35 +365%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 +$100 +510%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $16 −$15 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $21 +$15 +69%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $21 +$18 +90%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $21 +$20 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY No 40¢ $20 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 52¢ $34 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $20 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $36 22h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY 36¢ $5 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 25h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $19 27h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $41 30h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 40¢ $14 44h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $30 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 59¢ $20 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $23 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 57¢ $74 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Urug BUY 27¢ $30 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 21¢ $9 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 16¢ $20 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 61¢ $16 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $13 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $21 4d
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $19 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $21 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 5d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.41 · official $50.42 (match) · 38 history records