trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -0.0% | -9.6% | 20% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤30d | 18 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 39% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 18 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 39% | 0% | -9.3% |
| all | 29 | -2.4% | -11.7% | 41% | 3% | -9.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.7% | 3% | -9.8% |
| 10% | -20.1% | 0% | -18.4% |
| 15% | -27.8% | 0% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -34.9% | 0% | -33.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 83¢ | 83¢ | $37 | $37 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 21 | $42 | −$1 | -3% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Jun 20 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 20 | $37 | +$1 | +3% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 18 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 17 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 04 | $38 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 02 | $115 | +$1 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 01 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 31 | $37 | $0 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 31 | $2 | $0 | +6% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 30 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 30 | $44 | +$1 | +2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 29 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 27 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 27 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | May 26 | $37 | $0 | -1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | May 25 | $20 | $0 | +2% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 25 | $2 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? | Dec 22 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? | Jun 26 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? | Jun 05 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 04 | $6 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Apr 15 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? | Apr 13 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? | Apr 12 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| TikTok sale announced before May? | Apr 11 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? | Mar 15 | $5 | −$5 | -90% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 12 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Gonzaga vs. Washington State | Mar 03 | $11 | +$1 | +12% |