Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:12:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8cf…819e other 147 markets active 4h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,504 (+10%) realized +$1,498 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate36%45W / 81L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day94.8pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$782now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$243
7 days+$398
14 days+$398
30 days+$1,048
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$1,189
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -36.0% -42.1% 28% 12% -5.7%
≤30d 110 -29.9% -36.6% 33% 16% -2.4%
≤90d 126 -23.3% -30.6% 36% 21% -1.8%
all 126 -23.3% -30.6% 36% 21% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.6% 21% -1.8%
10% ← realistic here -37.3% 16% -11.2%
15% -43.3% 11% -19.8%
20% -48.9% 10% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -25% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
19.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$12 · ×3.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$782
Realized+$1,498
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses45 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions21
Markets (closed)126 / 147
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$100
Trades / day94.8
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $176 $179 +$2 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 90¢ 100¢ $80 $89 +$9 (+11%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $76 $80 +$3 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 18¢ 40¢ $25 $56 +$31 (+121%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 85¢ 78¢ $53 $49 −$4 (-8%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $30 $47 +$17 (+58%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $44 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $18 $7 −$11 (-62%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $13 $5 −$8 (-61%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $18 $5 −$14 (-75%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-53%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-78%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $161 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1,633 +$300 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $90 −$58 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $8 −$3 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $80 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $248 −$12 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $7 −$4 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2,022 +$25 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $271 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $85 −$5 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $139 −$2 -2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $302 −$39 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 15 $75 −$54 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $80 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $106 −$11 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 15 $131 −$131 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 15 $147 −$52 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 15 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $297 −$185 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $98 −$10 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $134 −$111 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$7 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 15 $97 +$10 +11%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 15 $166 +$5 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 15 $425 +$363 +85%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 15 $176 −$9 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $192 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $1,240 +$232 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 15 $280 +$204 +73%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $626 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 30 $26 −$6 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 30 $0 $0 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 30 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 30 $3 −$2 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 30 $1 $0 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 30 $95 +$91 +95%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 30 $36 +$8 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 3h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $8 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $6 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $4 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $5 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $33 5h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $68 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 5h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 6h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 18h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 18h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 22h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $15 22h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 22h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $53 23h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 23h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 23h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 23h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 23h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 26h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $782.09 · official $782.09 (match) · 3500 history records