Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:35:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E8 0xe8cd…7977 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$454 (-50%) realized −$429 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 96d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$230
sports 25% −$227
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-58.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 4 -42.0% -47.6% 50% 50% -56.9%
all 5 -53.6% -58.0% 40% 40% -60.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.0% 40% -60.3%
10% -62.1% 0% -64.1%
15% -65.7% 0% -67.6%
20% -69.1% 0% -70.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$159 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$429
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage96d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $95 $70 −$25 (-26%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $45 $45 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $191 −$188 -98%
Bolton Wanderers FC vs. Stockport County FC: O/U 4.5 May 24 $228 −$227 -99%
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $109 +$20 +19%
Will FC Imabari win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $184 +$24 +13%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-22? Mar 25 $61 −$61 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $46 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $191 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $97 12d
Bolton Wanderers FC vs. Stockport County FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 75¢ $228 33d
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-05-24? SELL No 99¢ $129 33d
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 83¢ $109 33d
Will FC Imabari win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 88¢ $184 33d
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-22? BUY Yes 52¢ $61 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.58 · official $114.58 (match) · 23 history records