Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:08:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe8cd…b264
sports · 177 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$187 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$153 · open −$32
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$26
Realized−$153
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses122 / 75
Open positions27
Markets (closed)197 / 177
History coverage117d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 27 History 197 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Chicago Bears leave Illinois by Dec. 31? No 84¢ 45¢ $25 $14 −$12 (-46%)
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-54%)
Will Garrett Crochet win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Will George Kirby win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? No 86¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Jose Soriano win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Will Ranger Suarez win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-77%)
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-31%)
Will Cole Ragans win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-81%)
Will Bryce Miller win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-81%)
Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-81%)
Will Hibachi launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will Carlos Rodón win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-67%)
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-70%)
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-70%)
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-73%)
Will Hunter Brown win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Will MacKenzie Gore win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Will Gerrit Cole win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Upbit be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will OpenSea be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethena be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tether be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will another company be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gemini be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Helius be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jupiter be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Robinhood be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Base be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will AAVE be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Grayscale be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kraken be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Coinbase be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jito be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Moonshot be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Dexscreener be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Binance be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Flashbots be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will OKX be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$7 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$5 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +35%
Will $2.50 Coin become law this year? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Trump Airport become law this year? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +118%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +18%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $2 +$4 +245%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? May 17 $7 −$7 -95%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 17 $19 $0 +2%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? May 04 $23 +$1 +2%
Will Pablo Lopez win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? May 04 $373 −$136 -37%
Will Paradex launch a token by May 31, 2026? Feb 27 $19 $0 +3%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Feb 25 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Feb 25 $37 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 48% −$37
other 26% −$34
world 13% −$135
politics 7% +$15
crypto 4% +$10
tech 2% +$3
economics 1% +$1
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $24 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $14 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $8 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $15 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -43.2% -48.6% 33% 28% -5.5%
≤30d 45 -43.5% -48.9% 33% 27% -9.8%
≤90d 47 -42.4% -47.9% 34% 26% -31.7%
all 197 -14.1% -22.3% 62% 26% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 26% -13.7%
10% -29.7% 19% -21.9%
15% -36.5% 13% -29.5%
20% -42.7% 8% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.35 · official $26.36 (match) · 645 history records