Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:40:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe8cd…4b4d
crypto · 946 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$10 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses655 / 287
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)942 / 946
History coverage22d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day118.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 4 History 942 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$238
14 days+$42
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 7? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$4 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$8 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $24 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $40 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $33 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $19 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $24 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $34 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$9 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $33 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $16 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $19 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $22 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $19 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $12 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $21 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 96% +$168
other 3% −$170
sports 1% +$5
weather 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 315 +22.2% +10.5% 56% 20% +1.0%
≤30d 942 +3.0% -6.8% 70% 13% -9.3%
≤90d 942 +3.0% -6.8% 70% 13% -9.3%
all 942 +3.0% -6.8% 70% 13% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover118.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 13% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 8% -18.0%
15% -23.8% 6% -25.9%
20% -31.3% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.40 · official $3.40 (match) · 3500 history records