Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:57:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E8 0xe8ca…4b57 other 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$73 (+0%) realized +$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate5%7W / 124L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$13
politics 39% −$12
economics 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
sports 3% +$95
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 121 +0.3% -9.2% 2% 2% -9.4%
all 131 +0.5% -9.0% 5% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 5% -9.3%
10% -17.7% 5% -18.0%
15% -25.7% 4% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$0 · ×38.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses7 / 124
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage115d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $413 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $282 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $25 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $284 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $16 $0 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $153 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $35 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $159 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $156 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $739 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $270 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $133 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $161 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $157 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $133 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $177 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $148 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $172 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $150 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $161 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $146 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $281 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 11 $174 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $145 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $140 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $310 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $169 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $171 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $304 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $336 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $172 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $179 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $135 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $154 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $263 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $129 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $131 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $175 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $335 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $124 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $178 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $163 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $165 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 46h
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $21 2d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $21 5d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 6d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 9d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 12d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 12d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 13d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 13d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 13d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 14d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 15d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $20 21d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $20 21d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $15 21d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $15 21d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $159 26d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $159 26d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $142 27d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $142 27d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $156 28d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $156 28d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $160 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 415 history records