Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:20:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8ca…b357 other 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$3,126 (+2%) realized +$3,122 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate18%25W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$1,457per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$689now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$29
30 days+$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$3,066
politics 42% −$102
sports 6% +$136
culture 4% −$9
economics 3% −$8
world 2% +$1
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 32 +8.7% -1.6% 16% 9% -9.3%
≤90d 86 -0.3% -9.8% 8% 3% -9.7%
all 139 +1.2% -8.5% 18% 12% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 12% -8.2%
10% -17.2% 12% -16.9%
15% -25.2% 11% -25.0%
20% -32.6% 9% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,843) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$183 vs −$13 · ×13.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.06 per $1 lost it wins $3.06
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$689
Realized+$3,122
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses25 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)139 / 141
History coverage131d
Avg bet$1,457
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $428 $432 +$5 (+1%)
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $256 $256 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $257 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $313 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $235 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $340 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $2,972 −$4 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2,269 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,254 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $6,939 −$8 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $8,878 −$10 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5,047 −$5 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,525 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,256 −$2 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,360 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,327 −$2 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $61 +$69 +114%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,188 −$2 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $85 +$67 +79%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $423 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $650 +$2 +0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $4,194 −$5 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $5,347 −$6 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $1,744 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,016 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $996 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $784 −$1 -0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $67 +$60 +90%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,038 −$2 -0%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $2,609 −$3 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $4,188 −$7 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $1,388 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $3,232 −$5 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $1,317 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,626 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $1,618 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,621 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $1,289 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,300 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $3,095 −$4 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,306 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,641 −$3 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 07 $1,670 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $3,082 −$5 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $6,104 −$7 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $256 1h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $257 25h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $257 27h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $313 46h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $313 2d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $356 3d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $356 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $449 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $449 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $234 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $235 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $340 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $340 6d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,424 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,426 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,270 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,271 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,252 10d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,254 10d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $428 12d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,667 13d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,669 13d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,467 13d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,469 14d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,351 14d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,353 14d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,613 14d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,615 14d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,523 14d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,525 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $688.59 · official $688.59 (match) · 486 history records