Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:28:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

E8 0xe8ca…dc5d other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$40 (-13%) realized −$40 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip

Net edge-44%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$62per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 116d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-44.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-62.0%	-65.6%	0%	0%	-32.7%
≤30d	2	-62.0%	-65.6%	0%	0%	-32.7%
≤90d	2	-62.0%	-65.6%	0%	0%	-32.7%
all	4	-38.3%	-44.2%	25%	0%	-25.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-44.2%	0%	-25.4%
10%	-49.5%	0%	-32.6%
15%	-54.4%	0%	-39.1%
20%	-58.9%	0%	-45.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -26% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -38% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$15 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.02 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage

Net worth$48

Realized−$40

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage116d

Avg bet$62

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$48	$47	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$1	−$1	-97%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 26	$66	−$16	-24%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Mar 06	$95	−$29	-30%
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?	Mar 02	$94	+$1	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	8¢	$1	1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$50	1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	3¢	$50	1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$66	2d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	SELL Yes	47¢	$67	111d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY Yes	68¢	$95	114d
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?	SELL Yes	94¢	$95	116d
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?	BUY Yes	93¢	$94	116d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.50 · official $47.50 (match) · 12 history records