Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:34:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe8c8…c0fa
weather · 283 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$213 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$212 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$129
Realized−$212
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses128 / 149
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions6
Markets (closed)277 / 283
History coverage250d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 6 History 277 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$15
14 days−$23
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? No 90¢ 94¢ $76 $80 +$4 (+5%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $49 $45 −$4 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Yes 52¢ 98¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+88%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Yes 46¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 30? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 2? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 25? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 8? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 21? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 20? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 25? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 2? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 23? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or below on June 6? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 1? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 29? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 30? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 9? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 10? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 1? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 1? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -34%
Will Iran go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 13 $88 −$12 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 +$7 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +120%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +175%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +184%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +111%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 $0 +12%
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 07 $64 −$4 -7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 +$1 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 +$2 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 05 $12 $0 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $52 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 +$2 +197%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -49%
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 05 $76 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $88 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $10 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 3? Jun 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 38% +$2
other 36% −$57
world 6% −$24
weather 5% −$28
politics 5% −$8
culture 4% −$78
finance 4% +$1
tech 1% +$1
economics 0% −$3
crypto 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $76 4h
Will Iran go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL No 81¢ $77 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 4h
Will Iran go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 93¢ $5 13h
Will Iran go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 93¢ $84 13h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 36h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 36h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 93¢ $47 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 93¢ $8 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 93¢ $19 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 93¢ $37 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? SELL No 75¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? SELL No 76¢ $9 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? SELL No 76¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? BUY No 75¢ $38 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 10? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 10? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 10? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -13.3% -21.5% 39% 33% -13.4%
≤30d 165 -12.2% -20.6% 39% 25% -13.7%
≤90d 244 -9.8% -18.4% 44% 26% -11.5%
all 277 -10.3% -18.8% 46% 30% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 30% -12.0%
10% -26.6% 21% -20.5%
15% -33.7% 16% -28.1%
20% -40.2% 14% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.77 · official $128.77 (match) · 694 history records