Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe8c4…395d
sports · 679 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$6,812 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,961 · open +$828
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$119,849
Realized+$5,961
Unrealized+$828
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses245 / 212
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$3,235
Open positions293
Markets (closed)457 / 679
Avg bet$510
Trades / day264.1
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 293 History 457 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42,754
7 days−$24,007
14 days+$5,961
30 days+$5,961
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Emma Raducanu 50¢ 50¢ $5,625 $5,681 +$56 (+1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? No 89¢ 99¢ $4,103 $4,545 +$443 (+11%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+? No 90¢ 96¢ $3,650 $3,864 +$214 (+6%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? No 78¢ 91¢ $2,752 $3,190 +$438 (+16%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 90¢ $2,360 $2,272 −$89 (-4%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 70¢ $2,196 $1,740 −$456 (-21%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 76¢ $1,585 $1,707 +$123 (+8%)
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $1,434 $1,679 +$245 (+17%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 47¢ 46¢ $1,690 $1,636 −$54 (-3%)
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? No 66¢ 85¢ $1,205 $1,552 +$347 (+29%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 62¢ 82¢ $1,161 $1,545 +$384 (+33%)
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? No 88¢ 89¢ $1,482 $1,495 +$13 (+1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1,463 $1,451 −$12 (-1%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 87¢ 82¢ $1,526 $1,447 −$79 (-5%)
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Yes 70¢ 75¢ $1,316 $1,410 +$94 (+7%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 94¢ $1,244 $1,402 +$157 (+13%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 89¢ 88¢ $1,372 $1,357 −$15 (-1%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 79¢ $1,227 $1,310 +$83 (+7%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 73¢ 52¢ $1,821 $1,284 −$536 (-29%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $1,217 $1,208 −$9 (-1%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 89¢ 89¢ $1,198 $1,198 +$0 (+0%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 67¢ 88¢ $894 $1,181 +$287 (+32%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $1,115 $1,162 +$47 (+4%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 96¢ $957 $1,088 +$131 (+14%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 85¢ 94¢ $958 $1,059 +$101 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud Jun 12 $541 −$541 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $173 −$173 -100%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-05-20? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Set Handicap: Bencic (-1.5) vs Stearns (+1.5) Jun 12 $1,792 −$1,792 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $584 −$584 -100%
Kosice: Mathys Erhard vs Stefan Dostanic Jun 12 $158 −$158 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Bengaluru 3: Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong vs Yusuke Takahashi Jun 12 $274 −$274 -100%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 12 $600 −$600 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? Jun 12 $452 −$452 -100%
Cerundolo vs. Landaluce: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 12 $496 −$496 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Jakub Mensik Jun 12 $772 −$772 -100%
Set Handicap: Mboko (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) Jun 12 $4,503 −$4,503 -100%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? Jun 12 $1,114 −$1,114 -100%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres Jun 12 $176 −$176 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Roun Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Jun 12 $512 −$512 -100%
Set Handicap: Tsitsipas (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Jun 12 $582 −$582 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-23? Jun 12 $65 −$65 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 12 $1,107 −$1,107 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? Jun 12 $315 −$315 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 12 $636 −$636 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 12 $533 −$533 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $566 −$566 -100%
Jodar vs. Busta: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 12 $580 −$580 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Daria Kasatkina vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 12 $704 −$704 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $262 −$262 -100%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $837 −$837 -100%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 57m and 61m? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-3.5) Jun 12 $450 −$450 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group Jun 12 $165 −$165 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 12 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5) Jun 12 $748 −$748 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5 Jun 12 $549 −$549 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) Jun 12 $1,250 −$1,250 -100%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 12 $904 −$904 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 12 $588 −$588 -100%
Joao Fonseca vs. Novak Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $369 −$369 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $1,267 −$1,267 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $336 −$336 -100%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO5) - Circuit Jun 12 $230 −$230 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $709 −$709 -100%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $763 −$763 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 12 $874 −$874 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 65% +$88,510
other 17% +$2,552
world 10% +$1,840
politics 6% −$402
tech 2% −$753
crypto 0% +$629
finance 0% +$236
culture 0% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 77¢ $84 17m
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 21m
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) BUY Majchrzak 54¢ $1 30m
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) BUY Majchrzak 54¢ $1 38m
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Petr Brunclik 49¢ $28 45m
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) BUY Majchrzak 54¢ $1 54m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 77¢ $33 1h
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 86¢ $247 1h
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Petr Brunclik 49¢ $1 1h
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) BUY Majchrzak 54¢ $12 1h
Elena Rybakina vs. Tatjana Maria: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 69¢ $257 1h
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa BUY Katarzyna Kawa 46¢ $1 1h
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY Forsaken 20¢ $31 1h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY Yes 57¢ $189 1h
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa BUY Katarzyna Kawa 46¢ $1 2h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 54¢ $12 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $16 2h
Will New Zealand reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $46 2h
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa BUY Katarzyna Kawa 46¢ $3 2h
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY Forsaken 20¢ $2 2h
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY Forsaken 30¢ $73 2h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $101 2h
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) BUY Majchrzak 54¢ $1 2h
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) BUY Anubis Gaming 55¢ $24 2h
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) BUY Anubis Gaming 55¢ $5 2h
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) BUY Anubis Gaming 55¢ $11 2h
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) BUY Anubis Gaming 55¢ $105 2h
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) BUY Anubis Gaming 55¢ $3 2h
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa BUY Katarzyna Kawa 46¢ $1 2h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 89¢ $1,372 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 334 -11.4% -19.8% 47% 46% -19.7%
≤30d 457 +5.3% -4.7% 54% 51% -7.6%
≤90d 457 +5.3% -4.7% 54% 51% -7.6%
all 457 +5.3% -4.7% 54% 51% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover264.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.7% 51% -7.6%
10% -13.8% 48% -16.5%
15% ← realistic here -22.1% 42% -24.6%
20% -29.8% 36% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119,848.60 · official $119,820.76 (match) · 3500 history records