Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:25:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8c2…9ed6 other 149 markets active 0h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,511 (+1%) realized +$1,508 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate22%33W / 115L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$1,376per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$357now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$21
14 days−$29
30 days−$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$117
other 38% +$213
sports 8% +$1,403
world 4% −$17
culture 1% −$1
economics 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 39 -1.4% -10.8% 10% 5% -9.7%
≤90d 102 -10.3% -18.9% 7% 4% -9.3%
all 148 -0.2% -9.7% 22% 10% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 10% -8.9%
10% -18.3% 10% -17.6%
15% -26.2% 9% -25.6%
20% -33.4% 8% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,126) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$10 · ×7.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$357
Realized+$1,508
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses33 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)148 / 149
History coverage145d
Avg bet$1,376
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $353 $357 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,289 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $1,498 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $822 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $758 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,851 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $3,779 −$5 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,952 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,031 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $2,521 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,126 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $5,057 −$5 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,126 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,897 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $4,621 −$5 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $1,109 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $2,112 −$3 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 04 $68 +$66 +97%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,099 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,338 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $990 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 02 $114 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $424 +$2 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $2,537 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,789 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $1,893 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $4,682 −$5 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,750 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,113 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $2,211 −$3 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 25 $76 −$76 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $79 +$41 +52%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $3,167 −$4 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $2,096 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $3,314 −$4 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,035 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $3,221 −$4 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 20 $1,082 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $2,542 −$3 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,035 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,078 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $2,344 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $2,434 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $971 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $1,169 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $2,366 −$3 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,274 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $735 19m
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $736 1h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $761 19h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $762 20h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $821 21h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $822 24h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $757 41h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $758 43h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $779 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $780 2d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $736 2d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $737 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $796 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $797 3d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $823 4d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $824 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $705 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $706 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $353 5d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,030 6d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,031 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,082 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,083 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $851 7d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $852 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,118 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,119 8d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,124 8d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,126 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $998 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $356.88 · official $356.88 (match) · 523 history records