trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -2.4% | -11.7% | 0% | 0% | -11.4% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -16.3% | -24.3% | 0% | 0% | -30.9% |
| ≤90d | 30 | -37.9% | -43.8% | 27% | 13% | -41.0% |
| all | 59 | -22.5% | -29.9% | 44% | 20% | -29.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -29.9% | 20% | -29.7% |
| 10% | -36.6% | 17% | -36.4% |
| 15% | -42.7% | 12% | -42.6% |
| 20% | -48.4% | 8% | -48.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $9 | $6 | −$3 (-29%) |
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 0¢ | 1¢ | $1 | $2 | +$1 (+130%) |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | Yes | 4¢ | 2¢ | $4 | $2 | −$2 (-50%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? | Jun 22 | $1 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22? | Jun 22 | $14 | $0 | -3% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? | Jun 21 | $154 | −$3 | -2% |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 22? | Jun 21 | $6 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 22? | Jun 21 | $2 | $0 | -4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? | Jun 21 | $21 | −$1 | -4% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 04 | $56 | −$56 | -100% |
| Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | May 15 | $297 | $0 | +0% |
| Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | May 15 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Kings vs. Hawks | May 15 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Jets vs. Bruins | May 15 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Pistons vs. Thunder | May 15 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Nets | May 15 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Timberwolves vs. Pistons | May 15 | $108 | −$108 | -100% |
| Kings vs. Rangers | May 15 | $141 | −$141 | -100% |
| Grizzlies vs. Hawks | May 15 | $45 | −$45 | -100% |
| Thunder vs. Wizards | May 15 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Clippers vs. Pelicans | May 15 | $237 | −$237 | -100% |
| Cavaliers vs. Bulls | May 15 | $73 | −$73 | -100% |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | May 15 | $258 | −$258 | -100% |
| Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? | May 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Pistons vs. Magic | Apr 17 | $101 | +$159 | +156% |
| Pistons vs. 76ers | Apr 06 | $62 | +$47 | +76% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 2? | Apr 02 | $18 | −$3 | -17% |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | Apr 01 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? | Mar 30 | $169 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of March? | Mar 28 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | Mar 28 | $169 | $0 | +0% |
| Nuggets vs. Suns | Mar 27 | $34 | +$16 | +45% |
| Lakers vs. Pacers | Mar 27 | $95 | +$15 | +16% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET | Mar 22 | $1 | $0 | +39% |
| Pistons vs. Wizards | Mar 21 | $200 | $0 | +0% |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 | Mar 17 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Miami Open, Qualification: Dane Sweeny vs Rinky Hijikata | Mar 17 | $30 | $0 | +1% |
| Warriors vs. Wizards | Mar 17 | $127 | +$3 | +3% |
| Suns vs. Raptors | Mar 17 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| 76ers vs. Pistons | Mar 17 | $36 | −$36 | -100% |
| Warriors vs. Jazz | Mar 17 | $258 | −$258 | -100% |
| Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Idaho State Bengals | Mar 17 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Will Pacto Histórico win 24-26 seats in the Colombian Senate in the 20 | Mar 16 | $7 | −$2 | -26% |
| Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 16 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 16 | $3 | +$2 | +84% |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa | Mar 16 | $4 | $0 | +11% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET | Mar 16 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Nets vs. 76ers | Mar 15 | $293 | +$87 | +30% |
| Knicks vs. Lakers | Mar 09 | $75 | +$105 | +141% |
| UT Arlington Mavericks vs. Abilene Christian Wildcats | Mar 08 | $4 | −$4 | -86% |
| Western Michigan Broncos vs. Kent State Golden Flashes | Mar 07 | $171 | +$1 | +0% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET | Mar 07 | $30 | +$7 | +23% |
| Pelicans vs. Kings | Mar 06 | $131 | +$5 | +4% |