Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:58:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8c2…45b2 sports 477 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (209 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,213 (-13%) realized −$5,957 · open −$2,256
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%264W / 525L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day208.8pace
Fees−$811est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$8,800now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$636
other 0% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (209 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 575 -30.4% -37.0% 27% 24% -32.6%
≤30d 789 -21.8% -29.2% 33% 30% -24.4%
≤90d 789 -21.8% -29.2% 33% 30% -24.4%
all 789 -21.8% -29.2% 33% 30% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover208.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.2% 30% -24.4%
10% ← realistic here -36.0% 25% -31.7%
15% -42.2% 20% -38.3%
20% -47.9% 16% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$50 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$8,800
Realized−$5,957
Unrealized−$2,256
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses264 / 525
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$811
Open positions13
Markets (closed)789 / 477
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$130
Trades / day208.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 789 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 45¢ 100¢ $872 $1,948 +$1,076 (+123%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Galions 55¢ 100¢ $571 $1,043 +$473 (+83%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Team Vitality 38¢ 100¢ $313 $822 +$509 (+163%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 35¢ 52¢ $457 $667 +$209 (+46%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 73¢ 48¢ $974 $650 −$324 (-33%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Galions 66¢ 100¢ $322 $487 +$165 (+51%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 47¢ 48¢ $302 $304 +$2 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner SPARTA 63¢ 100¢ $77 $121 +$44 (+58%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 68¢ 52¢ $116 $90 −$26 (-22%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 48¢ 100¢ $43 $90 +$47 (+108%)
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner RisingRage 41¢ 72¢ $21 $37 +$16 (+76%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 28¢ 42¢ $17 $25 +$8 (+46%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 40¢ 28¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-29%)
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Calvin Hemery 34¢ 0¢ $75 $1 −$74 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 42¢ 0¢ $862 $1 −$861 (-100%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Paper Rex 40¢ 0¢ $447 $1 −$446 (-100%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Solary 37¢ 0¢ $192 $0 −$192 (-100%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Solary 27¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $111 $0 −$111 (-100%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? No 76¢ 0¢ $124 $0 −$124 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner G2 Ares 46¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 427 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hamburg European Open: Marcos Giron vs Ben Shelton Jun 15 $72 +$11 +15%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Panna Udvardy Jun 15 $72 +$33 +45%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Jun 15 $29 +$95 +324%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 15 $84 +$17 +20%
LoL: G2 Esports vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $79 −$10 -12%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bengaluru 2: Kriish Tyagi vs Hamish Stewart Jun 15 $39 +$59 +151%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bengaluru 3: Alex Hernandez vs Naoya Honda Jun 15 $27 +$111 +414%
Valorant: Team Envy vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qu Jun 15 $77 −$63 -81%
Geneva Open, Qualification: Sebastian Ofner vs Kilian Feldbausch Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants Jun 15 $23 +$45 +197%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 15 $34 +$23 +68%
Valencia: Adolfo Vallejo vs Jaume Munar Jun 15 $18 +$66 +359%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $35 +$24 +68%
Counter-Strike: Turma do Pagode vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - CCT Jun 15 $26 +$48 +183%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $35 +$10 +30%
Counter-Strike: R2 Esports Club vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - CCT South A Jun 15 $30 −$34 -114%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Qinwen Zheng vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs G2 Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $229 −$229 -100%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. NC Dinos Jun 15 $26 +$14 +52%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $154 −$154 -100%
Paris: Diane Parry vs Alina Charaeva Jun 15 $12 +$27 +229%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. NC Dinos Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Galions (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Play Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Janice Tjen vs Caijsa Hennemann Jun 15 $22 +$8 +35%
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Vit Kopriva Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Daria Kasatkina vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Cordoba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Miguel Tobon Jun 15 $88 −$88 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $64 −$64 -100%
Bengaluru 3: Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong vs Yusuke Takahashi Jun 15 $22 +$8 +33%
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-05-09? Jun 15 $25 +$5 +20%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals Jun 15 $18 +$12 +64%
Oeiras 4: Jaime Faria vs Emilio Nava Jun 15 $17 +$13 +80%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Grigor Dimitrov Jun 15 $7 +$30 +446%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 15 $12 +$8 +70%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Liquid (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Gro Jun 15 $11 +$9 +79%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Brute - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 +$4 +29%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs Jun 15 $65 −$65 -100%
Francavilla: Gustavo Heide vs August Holmgren Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 15 $6 +$27 +449%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri Jun 15 $8 +$15 +185%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 68¢ $7 0m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 67¢ $66 0m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 66¢ $60 0m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 65¢ $72 0m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 47¢ $14 0m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 47¢ $14 1m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 47¢ $14 1m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 48¢ $4 1m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 48¢ $10 1m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 48¢ $15 1m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 48¢ $15 1m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 48¢ $6 1m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 48¢ $15 2m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 48¢ $15 2m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 47¢ $15 2m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 37¢ $11 7m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $17 7m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 53¢ $16 14m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 52¢ $5 14m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 52¢ $8 14m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 54¢ $16 14m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 53¢ $16 14m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 53¢ $16 14m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 53¢ $16 14m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 53¢ $16 14m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 53¢ $16 14m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 48¢ $12 14m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $5 15m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $91 18m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 51¢ $13 21m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,799.61 · official $8,799.62 (match) · 3500 history records