Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:32:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8be…68b8 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$42 (-11%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%3W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$1
sports 42% −$162
crypto 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-53.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -48.4% -53.3% 18% 18% -48.3%
≤30d 17 -48.4% -53.3% 18% 18% -48.3%
≤90d 17 -48.4% -53.3% 18% 18% -48.3%
all 17 -48.4% -53.3% 18% 18% -48.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.3% 18% -48.3%
10% -57.8% 18% -53.2%
15% -61.9% 18% -57.7%
20% -65.6% 12% -61.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$18 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses3 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage4d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $53 −$52 -99%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $76 −$75 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $2 +$10 +468%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$36 +71%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $90 +$34 +38%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 87¢ $53 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 43¢ $76 3h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $87 4h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $124 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 71¢ $90 12h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 30h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 23¢ $23 30h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 30h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 30h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 30h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 3d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 3d
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 11¢ $12 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records