Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:50:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8bd…5a37 crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%35W / 1L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$2
world 11% $0
other 9% $0
weather 8% +$1
finance 6% $0
tech 5% $0
politics 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 -19.9% -27.5% 80% 0% -12.5%
≤90d 29 -2.5% -11.8% 97% 0% -9.4%
all 36 -1.9% -11.3% 97% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$12 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses35 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)36 / 40
History coverage118d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $87 $87 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 8-14? Jun 25 $102 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on June 6? Jun 10 $113 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 26? Jun 02 $90 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 22 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on May 13? May 22 $80 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $45 +$1 +3%
Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May May 09 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on May May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on May 6? May 07 $125 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 03 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by April 30? May 03 $65 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 20-26? Apr 29 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 58°F or higher on Apr Apr 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on April 25? Apr 26 $107 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? Apr 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 17? Apr 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on April 17? Apr 20 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on April 14? Apr 15 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 6? Apr 08 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 5? Apr 08 $131 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 06 $136 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 03 $135 $0 +0%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? Mar 29 $126 +$9 +7%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Mar 22 $2 $0 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? Mar 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 2-8? Mar 22 $113 +$1 +0%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 25, 2026? Mar 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in February? Mar 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 in February? Mar 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Mar 06 $66 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $87 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $16 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $102 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $12 14d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $113 22d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 22d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 33d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $90 33d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $46 43d
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $80 46d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 46d
Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May BUY No 100¢ $72 48d
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $11 48d
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on May 6? BUY No 100¢ $125 53d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on May BUY No 100¢ $13 53d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $22 56d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 100¢ $38 56d
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $65 56d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 20-26? BUY No 100¢ $97 59d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 59d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 58°F or higher on Apr BUY No 100¢ $12 61d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on April 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $107 62d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $27 64d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 65d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $12 68d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $114 70d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? BUY No 93¢ $10 72d
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on April 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $115 73d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $131 80d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 6? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.48 · official $128.48 (match) · 97 history records