Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:33:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8ba…c4cb other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 426d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$159 (-15%) realized −$168 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate27%12W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days+$71
14 days+$71
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% +$62
other 37% −$142
politics 13% −$31
crypto 5% −$51
tech 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-48.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -4.7% -13.8% 50% 50% +13.0%
≤30d 10 -4.7% -13.8% 50% 50% +13.0%
≤90d 20 -45.4% -50.6% 30% 30% -26.0%
all 45 -42.9% -48.3% 27% 24% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.3% 24% -27.0%
10% -53.3% 22% -34.0%
15% -57.8% 22% -40.4%
20% -61.9% 20% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$13 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

426d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized−$168
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses12 / 33
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)45 / 52
History coverage426d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 72¢ 86¢ $35 $42 +$7 (+19%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 64¢ 62¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-2%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 23¢ 29¢ $22 $28 +$6 (+26%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $28 $27 −$1 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $19 $20 +$1 (+7%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 26¢ 12¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-51%)
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $1 $3 +$2 (+167%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$9 +172%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $15 +$10 +67%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $101 +$55 +54%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $71 +$39 +54%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $25 +$27 +105%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $37 −$36 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $45 −$44 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $32 +$13 +40%
Will George Simion win by 0–6%? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 18 $3 +$7 +220%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? May 18 $7 +$12 +179%
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? May 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? May 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the next pop be elected in 4 days? May 12 $6 +$1 +16%
Champions League: Arsenal vs. PSG (To Advance) May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-05-05? May 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma May 05 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Trump increase tariffs on Mexico before May? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-04? May 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? May 05 $100 −$12 -12%
UEFA Europa League: Lyon vs. Man United (To Advance) May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Champions LeagueQuarterfinals: Arsenal vs. Real Madrid May 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-29? May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? May 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Champions League Quarterfinals: Bayern vs. Inter Milan May 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Rockets vs. Warriors May 03 $33 +$67 +203%
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025? May 02 $10 +$17 +168%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $36 50m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 55m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $51 31h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 36¢ $5 3d
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 64¢ $37 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 30¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $25 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 59¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $156 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 64¢ $101 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $110 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 64¢ $71 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $52 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $23 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 48¢ $25 5d
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY Yes 53¢ $37 41d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 49d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 31¢ $45 66d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 66d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 71¢ $32 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.45 · official $165.53 · 103 history records