Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:59:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E8 0xe8b9…e006 politics 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$145 (-2%) realized −$787 · open +$642
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate45%10W / 12L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$347per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$229
7 days−$380
14 days−$366
30 days−$937
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$176
world 32% +$52
other 30% +$141
sports 2% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -18.4% -26.2% 45% 36% -20.5%
≤30d 19 -14.2% -22.4% 42% 26% -21.1%
≤90d 22 -7.7% -16.5% 45% 32% -16.5%
all 22 -7.7% -16.5% 45% 32% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 32% -16.5%
10% -24.5% 27% -24.5%
15% -31.8% 27% -31.8%
20% -38.4% 18% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$505) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$161 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$1,158
Realized−$787
Unrealized+$642
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses10 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage72d
Avg bet$347
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 80¢ $491 $1,133 +$642 (+131%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$34 -67%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 21 $196 +$311 +159%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $781 −$778 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $697 +$84 +12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $487 +$193 +40%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 18 $84 −$83 -98%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 18 $52 −$37 -71%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 17 $633 +$21 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -86%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $103 +$234 +227%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $89 −$69 -78%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $206 −$151 -73%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $303 −$214 -71%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $289 +$13 +4%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $505 −$431 -85%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $1,860 −$20 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $816 +$81 +10%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 18 $299 +$243 +81%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 15 $190 +$91 +48%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 15 $11 −$3 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 35¢ $195 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 1h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 34¢ $306 3h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $17 4h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 4h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 6h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 7h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 98¢ $507 7h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes $0 7h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 37¢ $196 11h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 42¢ $102 23h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $781 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $697 4d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $15 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $487 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 86¢ $486 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $1 6d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $330 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $10 7d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 86¢ $337 10d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 24¢ $33 13d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 22¢ $52 13d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 25¢ $103 13d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 84¢ $167 13d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 13¢ $52 13d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $20 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $55 13d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 30¢ $89 14d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 14¢ $89 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,157.94 · official $1,157.94 (match) · 53 history records