Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:56:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8b8…4a65 crypto 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$29 (+1%) realized +$31 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate63%37W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day50.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$38
other 9% +$12
tech 0% $0
sports 0% −$5
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -8.6% -17.3% 63% 47% -7.3%
≤30d 59 -8.6% -17.3% 63% 47% -7.3%
≤90d 59 -8.6% -17.3% 63% 47% -7.3%
all 59 -8.6% -17.3% 63% 47% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 47% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 36% -16.2%
15% -32.4% 25% -24.3%
20% -39.1% 19% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$25 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses37 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)59 / 62
History coverage3d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day50.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 21 $104 +$54 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $104 +$26 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $208 +$204 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $104 +$65 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$60 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $105 −$69 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $105 +$109 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 21 $17 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $6 $0 +4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $110 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $207 −$73 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $12 $0 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$13 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $19 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $19 −$12 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$18 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $19 +$13 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$3 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $12 +$5 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$6 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$4 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$6 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$6 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $158 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $130 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $412 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $144 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $123 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $42 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $36 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $214 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $105 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.66 · official $62.66 (match) · 156 history records