Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:49:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8b7…38ac other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 632d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$168 (-5%) realized −$167 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate31%9W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$996now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$5
other 31% −$24
sports 11% −$140
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 29 -23.3% -30.6% 31% 10% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 10% -15.7%
10% -37.2% 10% -23.7%
15% -43.3% 10% -31.1%
20% -48.8% 10% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$15 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

632d coverage
Net worth$996
Realized−$167
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses9 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage632d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $997 $996 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $400 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $1,000 −$2 -0%
Clippers vs. Mavericks Nov 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Stars vs. Senators Nov 12 $10 +$11 +113%
Spread: BAL (-4.5) Sep 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Rays Sep 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 16 $5 +$6 +127%
Will Scott Stringer win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 28 $1 $0 +2%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Krzysztof Stanowski be the next President of Poland? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? Jul 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 05 $5 $0 -1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $5 $0 +0%
Canucks vs. Canadiens Jan 08 $124 −$124 -100%
Predators vs. Canucks Jan 05 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Liverpool lead the EPL in points at midway point? Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Notre Dame vs. Georgia Jan 03 $113 +$100 +89%
Who will speak more at VP Debate? Oct 02 $21 −$21 -100%
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)? Oct 01 $19 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $997 1h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $400 1h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $599 1h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $600 10h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $400 10h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $999 10h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 36h
Clippers vs. Mavericks BUY Mavericks 42¢ $11 221d
Stars vs. Senators BUY Stars 47¢ $10 224d
Spread: BAL (-4.5) BUY BAL 50¢ $8 274d
Blue Jays vs. Rays BUY Rays 51¢ $12 280d
Buccaneers vs. Texans BUY Buccaneers 44¢ $5 282d
Will Scott Stringer win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes $1 330d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 73¢ $1 330d
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes $1 341d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 341d
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? BUY No 100¢ $4 365d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? SELL No 76¢ $4 400d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? BUY No 76¢ $4 401d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? SELL No 99¢ $5 401d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 403d
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend SELL No 99¢ $5 403d
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend BUY No 100¢ $5 405d
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend SELL No 99¢ $6 405d
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend BUY No 100¢ $6 405d
Will Krzysztof Stanowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes $1 405d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $5 407d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $5 408d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 411d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 412d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $996.50 · official $996.50 (match) · 56 history records